Research On The Problem Of "Middle Income Trap" Based On The Perspective Of Current Account

Current account equilibrium is one of the macroeconomic goals pursued by governments.However,the current accounts of the major economies in the world are characterized by persistent imbalances.This phenomenon is called "global imbalances" or "global economic imbalances".The current global imbalances are mainly manifested in two aspects:on the one hand,the long-term deficits of the developed economies represented by the United States and Britain;on the other hand,the current account surpluses of the developing economies in East Asia,the oil exporting countries and the developed economies in Germany and Japan continue to expand.The theory of "middle-income trap" originated from the World Bank's "East Asian Economic Development Report" in 2006,and has become a hot research topic since it was put forward.Based on the current account perspective,this paper makes a comparative analysis and Empirical Study of 128 sample countries from both qualitative and quantitative dimensions,trying to answer the questions of "whether a country's long-term economic growth is good in surplus or bad in deficit"and "whether current account imbalance will affect long-term economic growth and cross the middle income trap".On the one hand,through comparative analysis of high-income economies and middle-income economies,the historical performance of the current account differences,on the other hand,has crossed the "middle-income trap" of the economy,comparing the current account changes before and after the leap.Based on a series of typical international facts,three general conclusions are drawn.On this basis,theoretical hypotheses are put forward and empirical studies are carried out.The empirical results show that the impact of current account deficit on a country's economic growth is uncertain,different from the traditional concept that "surplus is conducive to economic growth,deficit is not conducive to economic growth",the impact of surplus or deficit on high-income and middle-income economies is also different;current account imbalance on economy Economic growth and crossing the "middle-income trap" have inhibitory effects,especially on high-income economies.Therefore,for developing countries,on the one hand,do not be afraid of the current account deficit,a country's current account itself is dynamic change,economic growth needs a relatively stable external environment,but not absolute balance,in different stages,import and export policies should be changed by chance;on the other hand,whether favorable or not.Whether the balance is deficit or deficit must be controllable,because the balance of current account represents the balance of a country's external economy,and the external economic balance needs to be maintained.Only by creating a stable and balanced external environment for domestic economic growth can the internal economy not fluctuate greatly,thus maintaining the sustainability of economic growth.Smoothly across the"middle income trap".