Research On The Impact Of New Rural Insurance On Rural Residents' Consumption In China

The new rural insurance aims to guarantee the basic life of rural residents in their old age,to form stable expected income,to reduce future uncertainty,and thus play a role in expanding the marginal consumption power and increasing consumer demand of them.In the past decade,the new rural insurance has achieved certain results in stabilizing the income level and dispersing uncertain risks of rural residents.Then,can the new rural insurance achieve the expected results—promoting the improvement consumption power and consumption willingness of rural residents? How does the new rural insurance policy affect the consumption of rural residents in different areas and different types of rural households? In order to explore these issues,this paper sorts out relevant literature,combined with the theory of consumption function,life cycle theory and preventive savings theory,analyzing the impact of new rural pension insurance on residents' consumption.Then,based on the model of Modigliani,this paper sets a two-stage balanced budget rural resident consumption model,selects the guarantee level,financing level and coverage of the new rural insurance as the proxy variable of the new rural insurance policy,using the 2010-2016 the panel data of 31 provinces and cities.The progressive stepwise regression FGLS model is set up,to study the impact of the new rural insurance on the rural consumption level and the influence of features of our country rural consumption level.Then,this paper uses the 2016 Family Tracking Survey data to match and eliminate household data and personal data.According to the family payment phase and the pension phase,the family is divided into three groups: participating insurance households,receiving insurance households and mixed insurance households,and the family fixed effect model is established to examine the impact of the new rural insurance on the consumption levels of these three types of households.This paper draws three main conclusions.First,from a macro perspective,the new rural insurance has a stimulating effect on consumption and promotes the consumption of rural residents.Income level is still the main factor affecting the consumption of rural residents in China,and there is a strong inertia in rural residents' consumption,which is difficult to increase rapidly in a short time.The protection level of the new rural insurance has the substitution effect of income,which reduces the corresponding savings and increases the current consumption.The per capita fundraising amount of the new rural insurance has an inhibitory effect on the current consumption of the residents and affects the living service level of the rural residents.The participation rate of the new rural insurance shows a trend of restraining consumption.Second,from the perspective of the impact on the region,there is a regional gap in the impact of new rural insurance on rural consumption.The impact of the new rural insurance security level on the consumption of rural residents in the three regions of East,Central and West China is significant,but there are significant differences in the coefficient and direction of impact.The impact of the new rural insurance protection level on the consumption of rural areas in the eastern region is significantly positive,and it is significantly negative for the central and western regions where the economy is relatively underdeveloped,and the suppression of consumption in the western region is greater than that in the central region,which indicates that the redistribution effect of the new rural insurance has not been fully reflected.The impact of the coverage rate of new rural insurance on the consumption of rural residents shows a trend of first rising and then decreasing.In the western region with low coverage of new rural insurance,rural consumption has a significant role in promoting,but for the eastern part of the near-sufficient state,social security coverage instead has a tendency of restraining consumption.Third,from the micro level,the new rural insurance promoted the consumption expenditure of the insured families and mixed families,but squeezed out the consumption expenditure of the received families.For young families,the new rural insurance contributions will squeeze the current income,thus reducing the current consumption.The per capita consumption expenditure of households participating in the new rural insurance is lower than that of non-insured households,and the number of households participating in the new rural insurance contributions is negatively correlated with household consumption.For elderly families,receiving the pension will increase their basic income and has a significant positive impact on their consumption.For mixed families,the new rural insurance policy is conducive to promoting consumption.Families with members participating in new rural insurance or receiving pensions are more willing to consume than households without members participating in the new rural insurance and without members receiving pensions.In order to further improve the consumption capacity of rural residents,enhance their consumption confidence and increase their consumption willingness,the new rural insurance policy should be improved in financial payment,system design and insurance incentives.In terms of fiscal expenditure,the government should play the role of transferring expenditures,increase the central government's policy inclination to the central and western regions,improve the protection level of the new rural insurance policies in the central and western regions,and ensure the elderly life of rural residents.In terms of system design,we should improve the rural social security system in line with the standards of cities and towns,gradually improve the level of rural social security coordination,formulate incentive mechanisms and growth mechanisms for pension insurance contributions,encourage rural residents to raise the level of contributions,and increase the pension replacement rate of new rural insurance,and then expand their individual accounts and overall planning accounts.In terms of insurance participation,we will increase publicity on the new rural insurance policy,so that people have a deeper understanding of the new rural insurance policy and have a stronger sense of trust in the long-term sustainability,thus stimulating people to take the initiative to choose higher level of payment.