Analysis And Prediction Of The Influencing Factors Of The Change Of Cultivated Land Area In My Country

As an important carrier of grain production,cultivated land is an important material basis for human survival and development.As a large population,our country presents the situation of a large population and less land.Especially since the reform and opening up,with the rapid development of the economy,the accelerated pace of urbanization and industrialization,the area of construction land has been expanding,and a large amount of high quality farmland is occupied.In addition,the unreasonable utilization of cultivated land resources and land pollution,the quality of cultivated land is also threatened,and the productivity and quality of agricultural products are also reduced.In the context of comprehensive and coordinated sustainable development and the attention of national food security,considering that cultivated land has become an important scarce resource for social and economic development in China,it is beneficial that to study and master the change of cultivated land area,analyze the driving factors of cultivated land use change,and understand the change trend of cultivated land area in our country.It is beneficial to the rational utilization of cultivated land resources,to improve the utilization efficiency of cultivated land,to ensure the security of grain,to maintain the long-term and stable development of the economy and to realize the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources.By consulting the Statistical yearbook of china and Nationtal Land Resources Bulletin of China,this paper makes an in-depth analysis on the utilization of cultivated land in China by means of qualitative and quantitative methods,and explores the main driving factors and laws of the change of cultivated land in China,and then puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions.In the study,wefirst made a qualitative analysis of the status quo of cultivated land utilization in China in the past 1949-2016 years,and analyzed the regional difference of cultivated land utilization and cultivated land utilization in China.Secondly,the factor analysis method is used to analyze the main components of the driving factors of cultivated land use change in China,and to sum up the comprehensive score that affects the driving force of cultivated land use change.On this basis,multiple regression models are established to analyze the impact of driving factors on cultivated land use change.After that,in order to accurately judge the changing trend of the use of cultivated land in China,this paper also predicts the area of cultivated land within 2017-2026 years and 10 years in China through the establishment of ARIMA model.Through the above research methods,we draw the following conclusions:(1)Since the founding of new China,the area of cultivated land in China has gone through four stages:the continuous increase stage(1949-1957),the continuous reduction stage(1958-1995),the stage of fluctuation reduction(1996-2008),and the more stable stage(2009-2016);(2)The regional characteristics of cultivated land change in China are obvious and distinct,the relative change rate of cultivated land area in Central China,North China and East China is larger,which indicates that China's economic development level is high,the change rate of cultivated land is relatively large,and the opposite is smaller;(3)Total population,urbanization rate,economic development and investment in agricultural science and technology are the main factors that affect the change of cultivated land use in China,and natural disasters are not the main factors that affect the change of cultivated land use in China;(4)In the past 2017-2026 years,the results of China's cultivated area forecast test show that in the next period of time,the area of cultivated land in China is still declining,but its decline gradually slows down.Finally,on the basis of the current situation of cultivated land use,the driving force of cultivated land use change and the trend of the change of cultivated land in the future,the countermeasures and suggestions for the utilization and protection of cultivated land are put forward in the light of the actual situation in China.