Study On Socio-economic Impact Of Intelligent Transportation System Based On System Dynamics Model

With the development of China's economy and the improvement of the level of urbanization,the number of motor vehicles has been showing a blowout growth.This situation has resulted in the expansion of gap between urban traffic supply and demand,and finally led to serious traffic congestion problems.As an effective measure of urban traffic management,urban intelligent transportation system can promote the development of urban social economy.Besides,the lack of research on the quantitative evaluation of intelligent traffic system is the problem with which this paper is going to deal.First of all,combined with the current situation and characteristics of China's urban intelligent transportation system,this paper analyzes the content,channels and methods of how the urban intelligent transportation system affect the society and economy.Based on the advantages of system dynamics,we choose this model as the method this paper uses.Then in association with knowledge of SD model,this paper establish a SD model to evaluate the socio-economic effect of intelligent transportation system.Therefore,by comparing the real value with the predictive value to judge the stability and reliability of this model,and the result shows that this model is pretty reliable and stable.Secondly,this paper chooses Beijing as the object of empirical analysis to quantify the socio-economic impact of ITS.Vensim software is used to simulate and predict the socio-economic impact,and the trend of the key variables in the social subsystem and economic subsystem is showed in this software.The result of analysis shows that ITS can improve the immigration rate of city population,speed up the increasing rate of the resident population of the city,enhance the governance effect of environmental pollution.Besides,under the situation of city intelligent transportation system,the higher the level of city economic growth faster.Finally,according to the empirical results,this paper gives suggestions on the development of the construction of ITS in China:(1)to enhance the strategic position of ITS in transportation construction and development;(2)to strengthen the construction of city intelligent transportation system investment;(3)to improve the infrastructure construction and traffic layout.