Optimal Allocation Of Land Use Structure Based On Uncertainty Theory

While it is limited,land resources is essential for mankind to keep living and development.So we must to think about the problem that how we do could make full use of land resource when we are confronted with the social situation of rapidly growing economy,increasing population and frequently happened problems of ecological environment.Whether the allocation of land use structure is reasonable or not would make a difference to efficiency of land use efficiency.As the core content of the overall planning of land use,it is necessary for the optimization of land use structure to allow for elasticity range in the process of land using under the impact of uncertainty about the future land use planning.Therefore,taking Ningwu as the study area,the paper analyses the current characteristics,changing trend and driving force of the land use structure.It studies the optimization of land use structure under the impact of uncertainty by using lots of analytical approaches like grey prediction model,expert investigation method and multi objective interval linear programming method.And it make a result of elastic interval of land use structure and analyses the response of the elastic interval of various land use types to the uncertainty.The result of the study has an important significance in the planning of land use in the future and the sustainable utilization of land resources.(1)By analyzing the land use status and changing trend in the study area,we found that the overall change of land use is not severe,but the individual types of land use change greatly.There are two important factors which are industry and population in affecting the land use change in the study area.The comprehensive land use dynamic degree is 0.0558%,that means the land use change overall showed a more stable situation.It couldn't be the largest range of change and the fastest at the same time for the same land use type.As a pillar industry of economic development in the research area,the development of mining industry and the transportation of mining resources all need the guarantee of land supply for construction,and affect the change of land use structure.The role of population is reflected in two aspects of population quantity and human activity.(2)Based on the Influence of uncertainty,the multi objective interval linear programming model is constructed to optimize the land use quantity structure.Considering the uncertainty and using grey model predicts uncertainty index,through expert investigation method,we get the uncertain index range.Then a multi-objective interval linear programming model with maximum economic benefit and ecological benefit maximization is constructed,and random function and genetic algorithm are applied to solve it in order to obtain the optimal interval of land use structure.(3)Different land use types have different responses to uncertainty,which are mainly reflected in three aspects:(1)the width of the elastic interval.There are differences for elastic interval between various types of land use.The largest width of the area is other agricultural land and woodland,the smallest is natural reservation.(2)Sensitivity.Because of the different response to uncertainty,the sensitivity of land use types are different from each other,that the other agricultural land has the highest sensitivity,and the smallest is the natural reserve.(3)The development trend of land use.The land use types show different trends in structure optimization that cultivated land and the natural reserve are in a clear downward trend,while woodland and construction land are all in a clear upward trend change,waters and other agricultural land is more flexible.(4)According to the research results,the paper puts forward measures the direction of land use and protection in the study area.Firstly,protecting cultivated land resources is the foundation and it is urgent to explore a variety of efficient and reasonable utilization of cultivated land circulation.Under the trend of urbanization,it is a measure to actively explore a reasonable proportion of land use and improve the level of intensive and economical utilization.Water area is essential for the ecological environment,and the development of natural reserved land has to be moderate.To sum up,considering the influence of uncertainty in the process of land use optimization,the elastic interval of structural optimization is given to effectively offset some problems caused by the tight binding of planning,which fully embodies the concept of elastic programming.