The Early-Warning System Study Of The Stock Market Bubbles Under The Background Of Big Data

In the 1980 s,countries such as Japan,the United States,and Thailand successively emerged as economic bubbles represented by stock assets.The continuous expansion of these bubbles poses great hidden dangers to economic security.The expansion and bursting of bubbles will be devastating to the economies of all countries.Unlike some foreign developed financial markets,China's stock market has experienced only 20-plus years of development.However,China's stock market has achieved remarkable results in terms of scale expansion and high speed of development.At present,the stock market occupies a decisive position in China's market economy.However,in the course of development,China's stock market system has not yet matured due to China's unique institutional factors.In the 1990's,China's stock market has experienced several times of stock market bubble expansion and even bursting,which have brought tremendous impact on China's stock market.The impact of the stock market price bubble on the economy is not all negative.It is a double-edged sword.On the positive side,the modest presence of the stock market bubble is a symbol of the stock market's prosperity.Judging from the negative side,the continuous inflation of the stock market bubble will have potential economic security risks,and the economic harm caused by the burst will be disastrous.Excessive stock market bubbles will virtually increase the risk of the stock market,seriously threaten the stability of the stock market,and cause catastrophic damage to the economy.Therefore,research on the early-warning system of the stock market bubble has important practical and theoretical significance.This article discriminates the relevant bubble theory from the predecessors,analyzing the characteristics,the formation mechanism and the causes of the stock market bubble in our country,and the monitoring and early warning of the stock market bubble.Finally,it explains the prevention and resolution measures of the stock market bubble.Firstily,a better stock market bubble early-warning system provides support for the stable development of the stock market economy,and also provides a basis for the sustainability of the financial system.Secondly,this paper combines early warning of indicators with model warning to build a better warning system to analyze the alertness of the bubble and avoid the economic impact caused by the burst of foam as early as possible.The first chapter of the thesis elaborates the research background,research significance and domestic and foreign literature of the stock market bubble.The second chapter analyzes the fundamentals of the stock market bubble,which enables us to further understand its characteristics,genesis mechanism,and causes.This provides a theoretical basis for the establishment of the early warning system.The third chapter introduces the common construction method of the stock market bubble early-warning system,and combines two methods: index early warning and model early warning.In the fourth chapter,through the screening of the stock market data,the representative part was selected for empirical analysis.On the basis of previous research,I combined the early warning of the model with the early warning of indicators,and used the logistic model to establish a stock market bubble warning system to predict the stock market risk.After empirical research and theoretical analysis,we have screened eight indicators,namely,investor growth rate,turnover rate,inflation rate,index growth rate,price-earnings ratio,M1 growth rate,and growth rate.ratio.In Chapter 5,on the basis of summarizing the previous viewpoints,the method of preventing and resolving the stock market bubble is proposed.