Commercial Bank Small And Micro Businesses Credit Evaluation Research And Empirical Analysis

In recent years,the discussion on the problems of "small and micro enterprises financing difficult,financing expensive " is deepened in the academic circles and industry.At the same time,the development needs of commercial banks are rising.In this context,the small and micro business has become the focus of attention of the commercial banks.However,in contrast,the small and micro businesses in China have high business risk and severe opaque financial information.And they are also lack of effective mortgage pledge.In this case,this paper explores the credit evaluation technology as a start point to set the credit evaluation method for commercial banks to small and micro business,including the index system and the model.This paper tries to answer the following two questions comprehensively and systematically.Firstly,whether the economic benefit and cost match when commercial banks carry out small and micro business?Secondly,what kind of credit evaluation method is suitable for small and micro business of commercial banks in China?First of all,this paper discusses the theoretical basis from two aspects of reality and model.First is the aspect of reality.On the basis of the domestic existing academic research results and practical experience,the author tries to analyze the feasibility of commercial banks carrying out small and micro business from mathematical angle,which answers the first fundamental problem and proves the necessity of the innovation of small and micro business credit evaluation technology.Secondly is the aspect of model.This paper describes the main contents of statistical learning theory,a source of support vector machine.And then,under the premise of the feasibility,the paper attempts to explore the Small and micro businesses credit evaluation index system.The characteristics of Small and micro businesses are set as the basic starting point.The author combines the theory with the practice to sort out and analyze the factors influencing the credit situation of small and micro enterprises.The index system of small micro enterprise credit evaluation is constructed,and the author puts forward the important role of cash flow information.At last,the paper focuses on the research of the credit evaluation model for small and micro business.According to the characteristics of the small and mirco business and data of the actual situation,LSSVM model was constructed,confirmed that the model can improve the prediction precision and relatively stability.And the decision values are transformed into probability values in order to get the credit scoring by the method of posterior probability.In addition,this paper proves that cash flow index play an important role in the credit evaluation of the small and micro enterprises through the empirical test.This study provides theoretical support and practical experience for China's commercial bank screening small and micro businesses credit evaluation index and building credit evaluation model.At the same time,the study has a strong practical significance.