| A series of major breakthroughs have been made so far in the development of artificial intelligence technology,which has aroused widespread concern in all sectors of society.While artificial intelligence technology promotes a great increase in labor productivity,it will also have a profound impact on labor employment.If this problem is not handled properly,it will have a negative impact on the stability and development of our society.Therefore,this article will study the impact of labor force employment in the context of artificial intelligence advancement.The full text is divided into seven chapters: The first chapter is an introduction,which mainly explains the realistic background,research ideas,content framework,innovations and shortcomings of this study;Chapter 2 summarizes and reviews relevant research literature at home and abroad,and proposes the research of this article.The direction lays the foundation for the rest of the text;Chapter 3 is to introduce the history and current status of artificial intelligence development,combined with the latest literature to extract the bottleneck of the development of artificial intelligence,and lay the foundation for the research of Chapter 5;Chapter 4 is derived from theory The perspective proves that the expansion of artificial intelligence technology boundaries will promote the transfer of labor across sectors;Chapter 5 is based on the first two chapters,looking for technical boundaries and building a job substitution evaluation system,using KNN and Naive Bayes The machine learning algorithm measures the substitutability of the job,and summarizes the characteristics of the future job evolution trend based on the measurement results;Chapter 6 estimates the elasticity of substitution by constructing inter-provincial panel data,and selects a higher substitution The courier post is analyzed as a case to predict the future changes in the number of courier posts.The seventh chapter is to summarize the conclusions of this study and put forward corresponding opinions and suggestions.Specifically,the research conclusions of this article mainly have the following three points:Firstly,artificial intelligence technology will replace labor and employment through four mechanisms in theory.This paper expands the labor demand model of multi-factor input in labor economics,and integrates self-learning and general technology into the model.It is found that artificial intelligence technology can reduce nominal factor prices,reduce factor actual prices,and transform factor production.Relationships and changing consumer preferences,which in turn have an impact on labor and employment.It is also because of these four mechanisms that the impact of artificial intelligence on labor employment is more than the previous technological progress.In addition,although artificial intelligence technology also has a compensation effect,the labor demand involved in the two effects may be heterogeneous,which leads to polarizationof the employment structure and "structural unemployment".Secondly,the positions with higher substitution risks are mainly distributed in production and transportation equipment operations,while the positions that are difficult to replace are mainly distributed in professional technical positions.Based on the three bottlenecks in the development of artificial intelligence refined in Chapter 3,this paper improves the work substitutability evaluation system constructed by Frey et al.(2013),using KNN and Naive Bayes machine learning algorithms O*NET)collected 939 effective post samples for analysis.The results of the calculation were classified according to the "Chinese Occupational Classification",and it was found that the positions with higher substitution risks were mainly distributed in production and transportation equipment operations,and the positions that were difficult to replace were mainly distributed in professional technical positions.Further,this article combines the specific work content and work characteristics of these positions,and summarizes the trend of future job development as the division of work process,high-end operation skills,non-standardized work content,complicated knowledge structure,and customized professional services..Thirdly,the average substitution elasticity of the advancement and application of artificial intelligence technology to the labor force in China from 2000 to 2017 was-0.385.This paper constructs 30 provincial-level inter-provincial panel models from 2000 to 2017.The model uses the number of industrial robots per thousand workers as a measurement indicator for the use of artificial intelligence and serves as the core explanatory variable of the model;the average number of workers in industrial enterprises above the designated size is used as the explained variable;at the same time,the industrial added value,urbanization level,The level of foreign investment is used as a control variable to control factors such as industrial development level,labor supply,and technology spillover.The empirical results show that the increase in the input of industrial robots will have a significant substitution effect on the laborers of industrial enterprises.For every 1% increase in the number of industrial robots per thousand workers,the average number of workers in enterprises will decrease by 0.385%.Taking the post of a courier as an example,under the premise of four assumptions that the distribution of commercialization of distribution robots,the growth rate of the number of distribution robots,the growth rate of the number of couriers,and no major breakthroughs in artificial intelligence technology,compared with the path of post growth without the influence of robots,the increase in demand for courier jobs in 2025 and 2030 will decrease by 570,000 and 860,000,respectively. |
PDF Full Text Request