Analysis And Prediction Of Death Trend Of Digestive Tract Malignancy In Donghu District, Nanchang City From 2009 To 2018

Objective:This study analyzed the death data of digestive tract cancer in Donghu district,Nanchang from 2009 to 2018,to understand the death trend and disease burden of digestive tract cancer in Donghu district,Nanchang,and to provide more intuitive data support and theoretical basis for the comprehensive prevention and treatment of digestive tract cancer in Donghu district,Nanchang in the future.Methods:The birth date,gender,occupation and other relevant information of the study subjects were obtained,and the death rates of gender,age and standardized death rates were calculated to analyze the death rates of digestive tract cancer in Donghu district,Nanchang from 2009 to 2018.Potential Life Loss(PYLL),Average Life Loss(AYLL),Potential Life Loss(PYLLR)and Standard Life Loss(SPYLLR)were used to investigate the life loss of digestive tract cancer in Donghu district of Nanchang.Annual percentage change(APC)was used to analyze the trend of mortality and life loss.The grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to fit the data from 2009 to 2018 and predict the mortality trend of upper gastrointestinal cancer in Donghu from 2019 to 2023.Result:1.From 2009 to 2018,3062 patients died of digestive tract tumors in Donghu,including 1,951 males and 1,111 females.The crude and standardized annual mortality rates were 52.88/10^5,52.56/10^5respectively,which were higher than the average standard mortality rate of digestive tract malignancies in Jiangxi province(the winning rate was 45.49/10^5).The sequence of Donghu of digestive tract malignant tumor death before three(1013 cases),followed by liver cancer(809 cases),colorectal cancer,gastric cancer(598 cases),and the mortality of liver cancer respectively(17.50/10^5),colorectal cancer(13.97/10^5),gastric cancer(10.33/10^5),standardized mortality of liver cancer respectively(17.39/10^5),(13.89/10^5),colorectal cancer,gastric cancer(10.26/10^5).The sequence of causes of death in women was gastric cancer,liver cancer,and colorectal cancer,and the sequence of causes of death in men and women was generally consistent.2.The mortality rate of digestive tract tumors increased with the increase of age.The 50-55 age group(5605/10^5)began to increase rapidly,and the death cases were mainly concentrated in the 75-80 age group(454 cases).The majority of the deaths were among production workers(29.43%),and the education level was mainly at junior high school or below(61.92%).3.From 2009 to 2018,the overall crude mortality rate(AAPC:-0.9%,95%ci:-11-10.3)and the standardized mortality rate(AAPC:-2.5%,95%ci:-12.6-8.8)of gastrointestinal malignancies in Donghu showed a decreasing trend,while the crude mortality rate of males showed an increasing trend(AAPC: 0.3%,95%ci:-9.1-10.6),but the variation trend was not statistically significant(P > 0.05).The mortality and standardized mortality of liver cancer,stomach cancer and colorectal cancer all showed a downward trend,while the female mortality and standardized mortality showed an upward trend,but there was no statistical significance(P>0.05).Except for the standardized male mortality rate of gastric cancer,which showed an annual trend of decline from 2009 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2018,the rest showed a trend of decrease and then increase,but there was no statistical significance(P>0.05).4.The fitting results of GM(1,1)grey model showed that the fitting results were all good except for gastric cancer,male liver cancer,gastric cancer and female colorectal cancer,which could be used to predict the mortality of gastrointestinal malignancies in the next five years from 2019 to 2023.The predicted results showed that the overall mortality of digestive tract tumor,mortality of liver cancer and mortality of colorectal cancer all showed a downward trend in the next five years.The results of gender analysis showed that,except for the general male mortality rate of digestive tract tumors,the mortality rate of the rest all showed a downward trend.Conclusion:From 2009 to 2018,the standardized mortality rate of gastrointestinal malignant tumors in Donghu was higher than the national average and that of Jiangxi province,and the standardized mortality rate of males was higher than that of females.Middle-aged and elderly men are the high-risk group of gastrointestinal cancer,and the mortality rate is related to the education level of the population.The mortality rate of digestive tract malignant tumor in Donghu is not obvious,and it is predicted that although it is decreasing slowly in the next five years,it is still high.Digestive tract malignant tumor is one of the important malignant tumors that seriously harm the health of residents in Donghu.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of digestive tract malignant tumors,and improve the penetration rate of cancer screening,the awareness rate of health knowledge and the education level of residents in Donghu,especially the middle-aged and elderly men.