Study On Fall Risk Assessment For The Elderly Based On Statistical Analysis Methods

Health is the most universal and fundamental need of human beings.A healthy population is a key mark of a prosperous nation and a strong country.The emergence of preventive healthcare services is a great social gospel.Fall risk assessment service for the elderly is one of the preventive healthcare services.For this service,the report of fall risk assessment received by the elderly after participating in the service is the value embodiment of this service,the key link of this service and the important evaluating basis for the popularization and the sustainable operation of this service in the future.A valuable report of fall risk assessment will enable more elderly people to choose to participate in this service in the future.Therefore,it is of great social value and practical significance to adopt accurate and efficient technical methods to assess the fall risk of the elderly.Firstly,we study the fall risk assessment for the elderly based on the random variables.Assuming that the longitudinal error is a random variable,a basic model is constructed for assessing the gait plantar pressure of the elderly under this condition.The basic model is suitable for dealing with the more complex types of fall risk assessment service.The research shows that the gait plantar pressure of the elderly at each completion of a specific type of service can be characterized by Gaussian processes.The method of solving parameter estimation is given with the help of maximum likelihood estimation theory and unconstrained nonlinear optimization algorithm.Then,we study the fall risk assessment for the elderly based on the time series.Assuming that the longitudinal error is a time series,a basic model is constructed for assessing the gait plantar pressure of the elderly under this situation.The basic model is suitable for dealing with the simpler types of fall risk assessment service,but its evaluation accuracy is higher.Through the analysis of the model,the estimation method and the solution algorithm of the model parameters are given.In both studies,the numerical analyses were carried out based on the service type of walking across obstacles.Firstly,the reference range of the parameters of the gait plantar pressure model for the elderly with relatively lower degree of fall risk was obtained through training samples.Then,the rationality of the evaluation results is verified by the test samples and the personal health status survey for the elderly.Therefore,it will be more accurate and comprehensive to evaluate the degree of fall risk if the two methods can be combined to conduct modeling analysis and solving for all types of fall risk assessment service for the elderly.