Study On The Ten-year Risk Of Cardiovascular Disease In The Population Aged 40-65 In Inner Mongolia And Application Comparison Of Risk Assessment Model

Objective To evaluate the risk of cardiovascular disease prevention in the next ten years in the population aged 40-65 in Inner Mongolia,analyze whether the commonly used foreign cardiovascular disease risk assessment model is suitable for the population in Inner Mongolia,and provide theoretical basis and scientific basis for the renewal and establishment of domestic cardiovascular disease risk assessment modelMethods The data of this study come from six project sites of early screening and comprehensive intervention program for high risk population of cardiovascular disease(hereinafter referred to as "high risk screening program")in Inner Mongolia in 2015.40890 permanent residents aged 40-65 were selected by convenient sampling method for questionnaire survey,physical examination and biological sample collection.Three commonly used cardiovascular disease risk assessments in China were selected The model(FR,SCORE,2016 ASCVD model)analyzes the number of high-risk population and the average risk assessment prediction value calculated by the three models,and analyzes the area under ROC curve and the validation model of Hosmer lemeshow statistics.SPSS 22.0 was used for statistical analysis.Results The average risk of cardiovascular disease in the next ten years in the population aged 40-65 years in Inner Mongolia is 6.37%.Men are more than women,the people with lower family income are more than the people with higher family income,the people with lower education background are more than the people with higher education background.There is no significant difference among different ethnic groups and different marriage situations.The number of high-risk population is 6687,accounting for 16.4%,men are larger than women,urban population is larger than rural population,people with low education background are larger than those with high education background,people with low family annual income are larger than those with high family annual income,and there is no significant difference between different ethnic groups and people with different marriage situations.The average risk of ASCVD model,SCORE and FRS risk assessment model in 2016 was 6.37%,1.91%and 7.49%in the population aged 40-65 in Inner Mongolia,respectively.The number of high-risk population(proportion)was 6687(16.4%),9031(22.1%)and 3261(8.0%)The area under ROC curve constructed by FRS and SCORE based on ASCVD model in 2016 is greater than 0.75,with good discrimination ability,but the significance of Hosmer lemeshow statistics of the two models is p<0.05,with poor calibration ability.Conclusion The risk of cardiovascular disease in Inner Mongolia is high in the next ten years.We should identify the high-risk population as soon as possible and take relevant prevention and control measures.The risk assessment model of cardiovascular disease abroad may not be suitable for Inner Mongolia population.