Epidemiological Characteristics Of Viral Diarrhea Among The Children That Under 5 Years Old From 2013 To 2017 In Jilin Province

ObjectiveAim to explore the viral diarrhea infection among young children under 5 years old from January 2013 to December 2017 in Jilin Province,and to describe the epidemiological characteristics of viral diarrhea and four different types of viral diarrhea.At the same time,the ARIMA model is used to predict the incidence of viral diarrhea in Jilin Province,which will provide an important basis for the prevention and control of viral diarrhea of the children and the development of prevention and control measures in Jilin Province in the future.MethodsAll children under the age of 5 with diarrhea admitted to Children’s Hospital of Changchun from 2013 to 2017 were selected as monitoring subjects.Fecal specimens collected within 3 days of hospitalization were collected and basic information and morbidity were collected.The fecal specimens were tested in the laboratory and HRV-positive specimens needed to classify the types.Epidata 3.1 used for data entry and integration,and SPSS 24.0 used for statistical analysis.The specific rate or structure was used to descript counting data and the chi-square test is used for comparison between groups.The percentage bar graph was used to describe the trend of G/P typing of rotavirus in 2013-2017.ARIMA（p,d,q）（P,D,Q）s model was established by using R software.Results1.A total of 1594 children with viral diarrhea were infected,and the infection rate was 70.2%（1594/2274）.Age analysis showed that the 7-12 month old group had the highest number of cases,accounting for 35.4%（565/1594）of the total case,and the proportion of the 25-59 month age group increased year by year.Gender analysis showed that 59.4%（947/1594）of the 1594 children with viral diarrhea and 40.6%（647/1594）of the female.There were reports of cases of viral diarrhea in Jilin Province from 2013 to 2017,with obvious regular seasonal distribution.The highest rate of viral diarrhea was detected in winter and early spring.Cases were most detected in January,accounting for 15.6%of the total case（248/1594）.From rural areas,53.8%（858/1594）of all cases and cities accounted for 46.2%（736/1594）.2.The study on the detection of four major viruses in viral diarrhea in2013-2017 showed that the total positive infection rate of HRV was 55.1%（1253/2272）,the positive infection rate of HuCV was 16.8.%（381/2272）;the positive infection rate of EAdV was 3.7%（83/2272）;the positive infection rate of AstV was3.3%（76/2272）.A total of 189 cases of co-infection were detected,accounting for8.3%（189/2272）.3.The age analysis of the four viruses showed that the positive infection rate of HRV in different age groups（χ²=56.433,P<0.001）and the positive infection rate of HuCV（χ²=11.895,P=0.018）were statistically significant.The peak of HRV positive infection was mainly from November to January,and the peak rate of diarrhea caused by HuCV was mainly concentrated in 2-4 months.The difference in positive infection rates of the four viruses in different months was statistically significant（P<0.001）.4.In 2013-2017,the G serotype of HRV was mainly G9,accounting for 88%（1103/1253）of HRV-positive specimens;mixed type accounted for 0.5%（6/1253）;noclassified types accounted for 5.7%（72/1253）.P[8]was the main serotype of P,accounting for 85.6%（1073/1253）of HRV-positive specimens;P[4]accounted for8.1%（101/1253）;mixed accounted for 0.6%（7/1253）;noclassified types accounted for 5.5%.（69/1253）.The different years of G（χ²=174.028,P<0.001）and P（χ²=69.405,P<0.001）of HRVwere statistically significant.5.The optimal model for predicting the trend of viral diarrhea in Jilin Province was ARIMA（1,0,0）（1,0,0）12.The prediction of the incidence of viral diarrhea in Jilin Province from January to December of 2018 shows that the incidence was obviously seasonal,which was basically consistent with the trend in previous years.At the same time,the true value was basically consistent with the predicted value.Except for February,the actual values for all months fluctuated within the 95%confidence interval for the model’s predicted value.ARIMA（1,0,0）（1,0,0）12 can predict the incidence of viral diarrhea in Jilin Province well.Conclusion1.Viral diarrhea can occur all year round,and the hight detection rate of viral diarrhea was mainly concentrated in winter and early spring.2.The detection rate of HRV was the highest in four diarrhea-causing viruses in the sentinel hospital in Jilin Province from 2013 to 2017,followed by HuCV,EAdV and AstV.3.HRV mainly affects children aged 13-18 months,and the peak incidence was in autumn and winter.HuCV mainly affects children aged 25-59 months,and the peak incidence was from February to April.4.The G serotype of HRV in Jilin Province in 2013-2017 was mainly G9,and the P serotype was mainly P[8].5.ARIMA（1,0,0）（1,0,0）₁₂ canpredict the development trend of viral diarrhea in Jilin Province well.