Study On The Follow-up Impact Of The Expiration Of The Subsidy For Returning Farmland On Farmers

The subsidy for returning farmland to forest plays an important role in implementing the project of returning farmland to forest.It is an important source of income for farmers in poor areas.The expiration of the subsidy will directly reduce farmers’ transfer income.This may cause farmers to have a psychological gap to a certain extent,which may affect the subjective welfare of farmers participating in returning farmland to forest and may affect the maintenance of the results of returning farmland to forest.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper will study the follow-up impact of subsidy expiration on farmers from three aspects: income,subjective welfare and willingness to use land.This can not only understand the actual situation of farmers after the subsidy for returning farmland to forests expires,but also provide a basis for establishing a long-term consolidation mechanism for returning farmland to forests.This article takes farmers from poor areas participating in the first round of returning farmland to forest project in Hebei Province as the research object.Based on the actual survey data of Hebei Province,propensity matching score(PSM),double difference model(DID),ordered logistic regression and binary logistic regression analysis were used to study the impact of the expiration of returning farmland to forest subsidies on farmers’ income,subjective welfare and land use willingness.And through the intermediary effect test method,determine whether the farmers’ subjective welfare is an intermediary variable.The study found:(1)The expiration of the subsidy has a significant positive impact on farmers ’total income,wage income and property income,with coefficients of 8.718,4.361 and 1.649,respectively;it has a significant negative impact on farmers’ production and operation income and transfer income.The absolute values of the coefficients are 4.805 and 6.663,respectively.The income of farmers is also affected by the characteristics of the family,the characteristics of the head of the household and the relevant conditions for returning farmland to forest.(2)The expiration of subsidies has a significant negative impact on the subjective welfare of farmers.From the marginal effect,the expiration of subsidies will increase the probability of farmers ’dissatisfaction,relatively dissatisfaction,and general probability by 9.27%,12.66% and 5.86%,respectively.Variables such as household income,the education level of the head of household,and the type of tree species also have a significant impact on the subjective well-being of farmers.(3)The expiration of subsidies will reduce the probability of farmers ’willingness to produce management and protection by 13.98%,and increase the probability of farmers’ willingness to recultivate,change tree species,and transfer willingness by 17.13%,7.07%,and 24.46%,respectively.(4)There is an intermediary effect between the management willingness and the cultivation willingness,that is,life satisfaction is an intermediary variable that affects farmers’ land use willingness when the subsidy expires.There is an intermediary effect of complete substitution in the willingness to change tree species,but no intermediary effect in the willingness to transfer the land for conversion.