Research On Camellia Oil Demand Based On System Dynamics

Camellia oil is a unique and high-quality woody vegetable oil unique to China.In recent years,camellia oil has entered a golden period of development.At the macro level,the development of camellia oil is conducive to increasing the supply of healthy and high-quality edible vegetable oils,effectively maintaining the national grain and oil security,helping mountain farmers to get rid of poverty and becoming rich,building beautiful villages,and meeting the growing needs of the people.At the micro level,with the increase of per capita disposable income of our residents,the improvement of living standards,and the improvement of health awareness,camellia oil has become more and more popular as a healthy and high-quality vegetable oil.At this stage,camellia oil is still facing problems such as insufficient raw material supply,insufficient supply of high-quality camellia oil,weak brand influence,and low consumer awareness.Researching the demand for camellia oil can promote the camellia oil industry to grow healthily.On the basis of literature survey and expert consultation,firstly,this paper makes a qualitative analysis of the factors affecting camellia oil demand from both the camellia oil supply side and the demand side.The effective supply of camellia oil is a prerequisite to meet consumer demand.The area of highyield and low-yield camellia oleifera forests and the yield of camellia oleifera forest have a direct impact on the yield of camellia oleifera seeds,which in turn determines the supply of camellia oil.In terms of demand,this article divides household vegetable oil demand into cooking demand and nutritional demand,camellia oil mainly meets the nutritional demand part.Residents’ per capita disposable income,health awareness,awareness of camellia oil,and prices all affect the demand for camellia oil.Secondly,the system dynamics model is used to model and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of camellia oil demand.Through the causal relationship diagram to structure the influencing factors,and then use the stock flow diagram to establish the quantitative function relationship between the factor variables.After the model test,simulating the change of camellia oil supply and demand under different variable scenarios from a systemic and overall perspective,and verifying and analyzing the influencing factors of camellia oil demand.The study found that the newly increased area of high-yield camellia forest,the area of lowyield camellia forest transformation,and the intensive production of camellia oil have a significant impact on the effective supply of high-quality camellia oil;consumer income levels,health awareness,camellia oil brand influence,consumers oil recognition has a significant impact on camellia oil demand.Finally,it puts forward suggestions to promote the healthy development of camellia oil from the aspects of increasing capital investment,emphasizing science and technology,improving the industrial intensification,increasing the supply of high-quality camellia oil,clarifying the positioning of camellia oil,increasing brand influence,and raising awareness of camellia oil.