Study On The Relationship Between Grain Production And Water And Energy In Ningxia

In the context of climate change,global population growth and rapid socio-economic development,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources,food and energy has become increasingly prominent.The three resources of food,water and energy interact and restrict each other.In particular,the production of food requires a large amount of water resources and energy as a support.It is necessary to study the relationship between food production and water and energy.The spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the food production capacity per unit water were analyzed,and the factors that have a deep impact on it were identified;based on SWAT model combined with future climate change scenarios,the impact of climate change factors on the grain production capacity per unit water were studied;at the same time,we fully consider the social energy factors,the energy consumption of major grain production was estimated,and its impact on the grain production capacity per unit water were analyzed.The main results as follows:(1)The temporal variation characteristics of meteorological,hydrological,water resources and agricultural resources in Ningxia were analyzed.The spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the food production capacity per unit water were revealed by three indicators:irrigation water productivity,crop productivity,and total inflow water productivity.(2)The grey correlation analysis method was used to identify the main influencing factors of the food production capacity per unit water in Ningxia,and the correlation degree between each related factor and crop water productivity was calculated.It was found that water resources and social energy had a profound impact on the grain production capacity per unit water.(3)The SWAT model of the Ningxia of the Yellow River Basin was established,and the runoff and grain yield were simulated combined with agricultural management data.Compare and analyze future climate change scenarios and future climate change data were re-inputed models to simulate the grain production;the spatial distribution maps by drew of food production,water consumption,and crop water productivity under future climate change.The results show that the grain yield of Ningxia is reduced by the impact of climate change.The input of irrigation water makes the grain yield change more stable.The influence of temperature on grain yield is greater of single water.Reducing,climate change makes the water use efficiency of grain production in Ningxia lower,which is not conducive to alleviating the contradiction between food production and water resources.(4)Energy accounting method is used to calculate the energy consumption of major food crops,and the structure of various energy inputs is analyzed.The relationship between different crops and energy consumption and the relationship between different types of energy and total crops are analyzed by regression analysis.The results show that the energy efficiency of water input into rice is the highest,followed by wheat,and finally rice.From the perspective of single-water grain production,in the case of insufficient energy production,the first step is to ensure the supply of electricity to improve food production.The resource utilization efficiency is the most favorable.The results of this study can provide a reference for guiding grain production and energy input in Ningxia.