Study On Main Meteorological Factors Of Spring Maize Production In North China Based On APSIM Model

Global climate change has brought a series of impact on human production and life,among which the most serious is the food production and food security based on agriculture.Spring maize planting in northern region of China plays a vital role of in the crop production in china,and it is also an important grain production base.The light,heat,water,temperature and other resources have changed in northern China with the dramatic changes in global climate,these changes will directly or indirectly affect the spring maize growth and development process and production in northern China.In order to identify the impact of climate change on the production of spring maize in the north and ensure the food production safety,this paper finds out the main meteorological factors that affect the development and yield of spring maize in northern China based on the APSIM-maize model and first-order difference method.Finally,the response of spring maize production to climate change was discussed.The results showed that as follows:(1)The climatic factors of the spring maize growth season in northern China are different.First,the temperature resources:the overall view of the northern region of spring maize growth season temperature rise.Secondly,the water resources:the overall to see the precipitation decreased in northern China.Finally,the light resources:the sunshine hours and solar radiation in spring maize growth season is rising in the west,but in the east shows a downward trend.(2)The simulation results of seasonal and yield values of spring maize growth period(emergence,flowering and maturation)of 79 spring maize planting areas simulated by APSIM-maize model are consistent with the measured values,and the simulation results are good.The coefficient of determination R2 of the three developmental stages and the simulated day is 0.91,0.52 and 0.72,and root mean square error RMSE is 7.34,6.84 and 5.67,and the relative root mean square error NRMSE is 5.44%,3.35%and 2.15%,and the D values is 0.87,0.8 and 0.91,respectively.The determination coefficient R2 of spring maize yield and measured value is 0.92,the relative root mean square error NRMSE is 7.09%,and the D value is 0.98.The APSIM-maize model has good applicability in spring planting area in northern China,and can simulate the growth and yield of spring maize.(3)The trend of average yield of spring maize in spring maize planting area is similar,but slightly different.The overall change trend of Gansu,Xinjiang,Shanxi,Ningxia and inner Mongolia is first rise and then decline.The average yield of maize in Heilongjiang,Jilin and liaoningchun is first rose,then decreased and then rose.(4)The seedling stage,anthesis and maturity of spring maize are mainly affected by the average temperature,daily minimum temperature,daily maximum temperature,potential evapotranspiration and soil temperature,and the sensitivity of these factors to the growth stages of spring maize was consistent,average temperature>daily maximum temperature>daily minimum temperature>soil temperature>potential evapotranspiration.(5)Xinjiang spring maize production is mainly affected by the maximum daily temperature and precipitation factors.The yield of spring maize in Shanxi is mainly affected by the average temperature and soil temperature factor.The yield of Ningxia is mainly affected by daily maximum temperature and soil temperature factor.Spring maize production in inner Mongolia is mainly affected by the average temperature and daily minimum temperature factor.The maize yield of Liaoning is mainly affected by sunshine hours and solar radiation factors.The maize yield of Jiling is mainly affected by the average temperature and daily minimum temperature factor.The maize yield of Heilongjiang is mainly affected by the average temperature and daily minimum temperature factor.The maize yield of Gansu is mainly affected by potential evapotranspiration and average temperature factor.(6)When the average temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,soil temperature rise and potential evapotranspiration increase,the spring maize growth period(emergence,flowering and maturation)decreases,and the number of days of spring maize growth is shorter and spring maize is ripe in advance.The meteorological factors of different provinces have different effects on spring maize production.the temperature(average temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature)and soil temperature and spring maize production into a negative effect in Xinjiang,Shanxi,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning and Gansu spring maize planting areas,the production of spring maize decreased with the increase of temperature and soil temperature.Then the temperature and spring maize yield showed a positive effect in Jilin and Heilongjiang spring maize planting area,the production of spring maize increased with the increase of temperature.The sunshine hours,solar radiation and spring maize production in Shanxi,Liaoning and Jilin spring maize planting areas were positive effect,Spring maize production increased as sunshine hours and solar radiation increased.The sunshine hours and solar radiation and spring maize yield in the spring maize planting area of Gansu were negatively affected.The increase of sunshine hours and solar radiation resulted in the decrease of spring maize production in the area.