Prediction Of Apple Yield And Its Influencing Factors In Yuncheng,Shanxi

It is acknowledged which there are considerable nutrient elements from apple such as DF(dietary fiber)and Vitamins,such elements are essential portions towards human’s daily comestible and food.Currently,the consumption of apple is persistently increasing in Yuncheng City,Shanxi province,meanwhile,the variety of apple is gradually abundant as well as the areas of cultivated lands and productivity are being aggrandized sharply.However,the production of apple has been greatly impacted on the wealth condition and current market situations,so that the data of output of such fruit is emerged by randomness,volatility,nonlinearity and complexity.Thus,scientific and accurate prediction towards the trends of apple productivity would ensure the stable supplies of apple from Yuncheng City.Also,such prediction could be a type of valuable information to orchard workers,intermediaries,merchandisers and even Government,meanwhile,under the precondition of safety regulations of grain planting and cultivation,this prediction would be an effective proof to discuss the productivity,distribution and allocation of apple.Furthermore,this report is through utilizing the theories from statistics,mathematics and economics as a foundation to predict the productivity of apple from Yuncheng City via the model of Grey Markov,as well as analyze and research the inputs of apple productivity from nature and traditional factors in target area.This report also utilizes the analysis of Grey Correlation,from the point of view of ration to explore the further influential elements to obtain outcomes and analyses.The main contributions from this report include:(1)According to analysis,it indicates the index of accuracy will be higher if combined the analysis of Grey Correlation and Markov Forecast.The example is Linyi county,Yuncheng City.The error values between Grey Markov Forecast and original data prediction from 2010 to 2016 were 0.554,0.005,1.396,0.919,0.342,7.598 and 3.097 respectively,which are much closer compared with purely using the data of Grey Prediction.Therefore,according to the model of Grey Markov,the productivity of apple will be 1.79147 million ton in 2017 from Linyi county,so that Government could implement some adjustments and controls owing to the productivity of apple and current consumption trends from customers.(2)After the analysis of Grey Markov,it proved the relevancy between apple and other fruits is extremely high,as well as the temperature,humidity and sunshine time frame during some specific periods.This report was selected some counties as examples into the research project,such as Wanrong(located at Northwest of Yuncheng city),Ruicheng(located at South of Yuncheng city)and Linyi county(located at middle area of Yuncheng city).In particular,the highest degree of association in Linyi county is between apple and grape is 0.849,the lowest one is 0.539 compared apple with peach.Specifically,the highest index of relevancy of average highest-lowest temperature is September-the average lowest temperature is 0.78868,the lowest index is March-the average lowest temperature is 0.63175.Moreover,the highest degree of association of relative humidity is 0.76081 on March,the lowest degree is 0.57348 on July.The highest index of relevancy of average sunshine time frame is 0.76984 on July and the weakest index is 0.60473 on June.Towards Wanrong county,the highest degree of association is between apple and pear is 0.967,the lowest one is 0.810 compared apple with peach.In specific,the highest index of relevancy of average highest-lowest temperature is May-the average lowest temperature is 0.89022,the lowest index is March-the average lowest temperature is 0.54365.In addition,the highest degree of association of relative humidity is 0.82626 on October,the lowest degree is 0.57348 on June.The highest index of relevancy of sunshine time frame is 0.78198 on April and the weakest index is 0.69352 on June.Lastly,the highest degree of association in Ruicheng county is between apple and pear,the index is 0.779,the lowest one is 0.649 compared apple with peach.In detail,the highest index of relevancy of average highest-lowest temperature is March-the average highest temperature is 0.69182,the lowest index is March-the average lowest temperature is 0.57368.Furthermore,the highest degree of association of relative humidity is 0.62411 on March,the lowest degree is 0.5432 on July.The highest index of relevancy of sunshine time frame is 0.79621 on May and the weakest index is 0.54983 on June.According to the results from this analysis,the relevant departments of Yuncheng city could enact and implement some regulations and policies in terms of make sure the productivity of apple to be boosted sharply and effectively.(3)The correlation between important climatic factors and apple yield was obtained by gray relat ional analysis.The function model was established by SPSS chart construction procedure.The spro uting period,flowering period,early fruit stage and fruit enlargement of three cities and counties i n Yuncheng were respectively Period,maturity of the average high and low temperature,relative h umidity,sunshine and apple yield multiple regression analysis,the equation is as follows:Linyi Cou nty y=-687.442+2.23x1-1.175x2-0.105x3-0.173x4+85.487x5,wanrong county y=12.676-0.246x1+0.579x2+0.345x3-1.003x4+3.415x5,ruicheng county y=189.590+0.01x1-0.022x2+0.011x3+0.055x4-10.768x5.As a conclusion,this report has focused on analyses and researches of specific elements which would impact on the output of apple in Yuncheng city,meanwhile,it has pointed out suggestions about improvement of apple productivity towards the North,South,middle and other areas of Yuncheng city.Additionally,the orchard labors should properly project the planning of soil and environment of planting before cultivating,also,it should be well discussed with meteorological department,for instance,towards the weather and temperature significantly rapid changes,the orchard labors could effectively work on and handle these extreme situations;after rainstorm,draining away rain-water and weeding timely in order to avoid orchard and floristic diseases appearing and spreading;also facing to problem of insufficient sunshine time frame,it ought to extend the lighting period artificially and/or other solutions.