Research And Simulation Prediction Of Spatial Pattern Evolution Of Rural Settlements Under The Background Of New Urbanization

The rapid development of urbanization not only has caused the continuous population increases and area expansion of urban,but also has a major impact on the development of rural area and the living environment of rural human.Recent years,in order to seek a more rational urbanization development model,China has proposed a strategy of the new type urbanization development.China's new type urbanization not only related to the urban development,but also will have a major impact on the lifestyles of hundreds of millions of farmers in China and the way that rural settlement be used.Jizhou District of Tianjin City is the first batch of national new type urbanization comprehensive pilot area,the policy will effect development of both the urban and rural.At the same time,as a National Rural Tourism Demonstration County,the rapid development of tourism in Jizhou District will have a huge impact on the development of its surrounding villages.An in-depth analysis of the impact of new urbanization policies on the evolution of rural settlements pattern is of great significance for putting forward a scientific distribution programme of rural settlements and reasonably guiding the development and evolution of rural settlements.In order to evaluate the impact of new urbanization policy implementation on the evolution of rural settlements pattern and put forward the adjustment strategy of rural settlements evolution under the background of new urbanization,it is necessary to reveal the evolution characteristics and driving factors of rural settlements pattern on a long time span.Given that the rural settlements usually have a long evolution period,and their disadvantages of small scale and difficult to identify from the remote sense,this paper use high-precision historical remote sensing images(3 meters)from 1962 to 2015 to support the analysis of spatial pattern evolution characteristics of rural settlements in Jizhou District in a long-medium time span.We obtain rural settlements data by interpreting remote sensing images in a period of about 20 years in Jizhou District.By means of spatial metric index,average nearest neighbor index and spatial correlation measure,this paper reveals the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and spatial pattern distribution of rural settlements in Jizhou District in different periods,and makes an in-depth analysis of the natural and socio-economic factors that influence the spatial pattern evolution of rural settlements.On thisbasis,CLUE-S model was used to simulate and predict the evolution trend of rural settlements in Jizhou District in 2030 by setting different development scenarios.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 1962 to 2015,the spatial evolution of rural settlements in Jizhou District showed different characteristics in different periods,and the leading factors affecting its evolution and development were also different.From 1962 to 2000,the number of rural settlements in Jizhou District decreased continuously,and their external forms gradually became regular,presenting a random distribution situation in the entire research area,which was mainly affected by the natural geographical conditions and economic development of Jizhou District.From 2000 to 2015,the number of rural settlements in Jizhou District increased significantly,and their irregular external morphology was obvious.Moreover,there was a certain degree of agglomeration distribution in the entire research area.During this period,the development of rural settlements was mainly affected by the development social and economic and policies.During the whole research period,the scale of rural settlements in Jizhou District was expanding,and mainly occupied on surrounding cultivated land.(2)The spatial evolution of rural settlements in Jizhou District is influenced by natural geographical conditions and social and economic development.Among them,the natural factors,such as elevation and slope,mainly affects the initial distribution of rural settlements in Jizhou District.Rural settlements have obvious characteristics of towards the low altitude area and low slope location,which embodied in that the rural settlements in different years are mainly located in elevation gradient between the range of 1-86 m and the slope range of 0 to 2 °.Location factors mainly affect the tendency of the evolution of rural settlements.That is to say,the post-built roads and favorable location conditions do not play a decisive role in the origin distribution of rural settlements in the initial state,but they will affect the evolution and selection of rural settlements to a large extent.Specifically,highways and expressways increase the convenience of transportation with the outside world,thus prompting rural residents to build houses close to areas with more convenient transportation;and railway has a two-way effect on the evolution of rural settlements,such as negative impact of noise pollution and positive impact of trafficconvenience.Areas close to the railway(within 3000m)have serious noise pollution,and the negative impact of railway is dominant.After 3000 m,noise pollution is weakened and traffic convenience is dominant.Urban expansion will occupy surrounding rural settlements on the one hand;and on the other hand,it will promote the expansion of surrounding rural settlements due to its radiation effect of economic development.The impact of population and GDP on rural settlements is obviously positively correlated,that is,the larger the density of population and GDP is,the larger the scale of rural settlements will be.(3)In the future,under different development scenarios,the evolution and development trends of rural settlements in Jizhou District are obviously different.Under the new urbanization development scenario,the scale of rural settlements decreases by 2.23%.The areas where urbanization has a great impact on rural settlements are mainly in the central and southern part of Jizhou District,and the transformation direction of rural settlements is mainly towns and other construction lands.Under the scenario of tourism development,the scale of rural settlements increased by 7.89%.The areas with greater impact of tourism development on rural settlements are mainly in the northern mountainous area of Jizhou District,and the increase of rural settlements is mainly caused by the occupation of cultivated land.The evolution trend of rural settlements under the implementation of new urbanization policy is different from that in the process of tourism development.When planning and guiding the construction of rural settlements in Jizhou District in the future,the impact of the two development modes of rural settlements should be comprehensively considered.In the process of urbanization,it is very important to integrate the development of tourism,merge the construction of characteristic villages while developing cities and towns,and rationally regulate the scale and spatial distribution of rural settlements in this process of development.