Chinese Solar Photovoltaic Development Based On Green-trading Mechanisms In Power System By Using A System Dynamics Model

As the rising of world's energy consumption and the pollution of fossil energy,renewable energy drawns greater attention from all over the world.Renewable energy is almost zero carbon dioxide emissions,will be a good alternative of fossil fuels.In China,the solar photovoltaic(PV)has shown significant growth over the last few years.Installed capacity of 43000 megawatts in 2015.China power year book of 2014 set the target of 300 GW of Solar photovoltaic(installed capacity)in 2030.In order to encourage business investment and use of solar photovoltaic power generation,governments from many countries have taken different incentive policies,including the price-driven policies such as feed-in tariff(FIT);and quantity-driven policies such as renewable portfolio standard(RPS).To increase the flexibility of the RPS,tradable green certificates(TGC)which was also known as renewable energy certificate(REC)was used as support policy of RPS.Rrenewable energy incentive policies are quite mature in some other countires like Germany,Sweden,the United States and so no.China began to implement FIT in 2011.On Feb.29,2016,National energy administration published a report ‘the guidance for renewable energy development and target of utilization'.It sets the quota for every province in 2020.Based on the experience from Germany and Sweden,this paper aims to evaluate the FIT and RPS policies in promoting installed PV capacity in China.A system dynamics(SD)model of PV system that includes FIT,RPS,PV cost,and installed capacity is built in this study.By using Vensim_DSS software,this paper assesses the effect of different combinations of policies on installed capacity of PV and emission reduction,and finds optimal policy combination.In addition,sensitivity analysis of the important parameters including reference value of return on investment(ROI),TGC price,as well as the ratio of the learning curve are discussed in this study.Results show that Combining FIT and RPS is a good way for promoting the development of PV as the introduction of RPS can save the government cost;nevertheless,in order to achieve the target for 2030,a lower decrease rate of FIT is needed.Moreover,learning effect and TGC are important factors which will have a big effect on PV market.