Simulation&Evaluation Of Water Resources Security In Tianjin

Water is commonly considered as not only a strategically basic resource that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of regional society and economy,but also a factor that containing the sustainable benign cycle between the regional ecosystem and the environment.The relation between regional Socio-economic and water resource security is more and closer,the problem of water resource security has been one of the most serious challenges to the security of economy society,country and humans living.Research on how best to resolve the regional development of various types of water resource security,is the most importance to support and guarantee the all-round,coordinated,sustained and healthy development of the socio-economic and ecological environment.On the basis of reviewing the evolution of traditional concept of water resource security,this dissertation defines the own concept of water resource security and the connotation and structure of the region's water resource security system,and then establishes the framework for the region's-water resource security system.According to apply the theory and methodology of system dynamics,quantitative describe the relation of inter active effects between the development of regional population,economy,society,ecology and environment and water security system,and establish a system dynamics simulation model of the region's water resource security,which include the four sub-regional system of water resources,water eco-environment,water disaster and socio-economic.By the improving analytic hierarchy process method and set pair analysis,the Connection Number based Assessment Model(CN-AM)for regional water resource security is constructed,based on the connection number.Finally,Tianjin city is considered as the case of an empirical study.According to the study of the region's specific characteristics and circumstances,the dissertation design four program for managing the development of water resource safety,run the system dynamics simulation model of regional water security and evaluate the level of regional water resource security.Then,the regional water system and its subsystem security trends and different periods of water resource security classifications are calculated over the next 20 years,and the measures is proposed to protect and develop water resource security of Tianjin city,based on simulation and evaluation.