Study On Early Warning Of Water Environment Carrying Capacity

In the context of economic globalization,the spread of environmental problems among different countries has seriously affected the sustainable development of human society,and even caused concern about the future of humanity.Among them,the water environment issue has received much attention from the international community.Because water resources are basic natural resources and strategic economic resources,its safety is related to the sustainable development of the economy and society.At the same time,the occurrence of water resources crisis is a process of qualitative to quantitative change,rather than overnight.Therefore,before a water resources crisis occurs,specific danger signs can be identified based on certain theories and technologies,early warning can be achieved,and appropriate measures can be taken to eliminate risks in a timely manner,prevent future risks,ensure the safety of water resources and water environment,and promote Sustained development is particularly important.The research on early warning system of water environment carrying capacity has very important theoretical and practical significance.Under the guidance of sustainable development theory,system theory and early warning theory,this paper studies the early warning system of water environment carrying capacity.The main contents are as follows:(1)Through the exploration and analysis of the early warning system of water environment carrying capacity,early warning index system and related concepts,the index system and system dynamics model of early warning of water environment carrying capacity are constructed.(2)By exploring the concept,principle and operation mechanism of early warning of water environment carrying capacity,the theoretical system of early warning system of water environment carrying capacity was preliminarily constructed.(3)By screening the general indicator system of water environment carrying capacity,distinguishing the leading,consistent and lagging indicators,determining warning signs and warning situation indicators,and building an early warning indicator system of water environment carrying capacity based on this.(4)On the basis of the constructed water environment carrying capacity early warning index system,the entropy method is used to calculate the water environment carrying capacity early warning comprehensive index,and the warning results are combined with relevant documents to divide the warning level and model based on the system dynamics method.The dynamic model of the early warning system of the water environment carrying capacity was established.The model test showed that the model had high accuracy.(5)Conducted an empirical analysis of the water environment carrying capacity early warning system.The system dynamics model was used to predict the values of the early warning indicators of Wuhan's water environment carrying capacity under the conventional development model for 2019-2030,and the comprehensive early warning index was calculated.Based on the prediction results,five different control schemes were designed and their implementation effects were compared.Based on this,targeted policy recommendations were proposed to make Wuhan 's water environment carrying capacity change from a critical overload state under yellow warning to a state without warning.Development without overloading.