Research On The Collision Risk Index Of Ships In The Third Warning Area Of Qiongzhou Strait Traffic Separation

Since the beginning of the 21st century,with the acceleration of globalization,the shipping industry has also ushered in a stage of rapid development.With the background of this era and the support of the leadership of the Party Central Committee,Hainan Island gradually established a free trade pilot zone.The city of Haikou is rapidly expanding,the tourism industry is increasingly developing,and the volume of port trade is increasing year by year.It is very important to ensure the safety of navigation in Qiongzhou Strait waters.In order to study the risk of ship collision accidents,avoid serious consequences such as casualties and economic losses caused by ship collisions,a specific water area of Qiongzhou Strait is selected as the research object.Through comprehensive and systematic analysis of ship collision risk factors,a ship collision risk assessment index system consisting of four secondary indicators and 17 three-level indicators is established.Then,based on game theory,the combination weighting is used to determine the weight of each indicator.The analytic hierarchy process takes the expert opinion as the input quantity to obtain the subjective weight.The entropy weight method takes the data obtained from the maritime department and the daily record activity as the original data,and experts evaluate indicator risk by giving data,and then use expert evaluation as input to calculate objective weight using MATLAB.This paper use the improved set pair analysis method,combine the risk evaluation level standard and the evaluation index weight,quantify the ship collision risk level of a specific water area in Qiongzhou Strait,and analyze the key factors leading to the ship collision accident.The results show that the average rating of collision risk of ships in the selected circular waters is medium.The reason is that the specific waters selected in this article are cross-channels.Guangdong Railway,commercial ships and ro-ro passenger ships often encounter situations here,and certain potential ships Risk of collision.The weighting results show that the collision risk of ships in this water area is mainly related to the encounter rate and poor visibility,which is consistent with the actual situation,indicating that the model is suitable for the research of ship collision risk evaluation.Finally,the recommendations given in combination with the research results and the actual situation areafter the implementation of the revised plan for the Qiongzhou Strait alignment system,the traffic-intensive waters in the alignment system move westward,and the navigation environment deteriorates.Supervise and use the VTS system to give timely warnings to ships that may cause collision risks;in order to reduce ship collisions caused by human factors,the crew's safety awareness should be increased to ensure that the crew always maintain an appropriate tension during navigation;The crew should look out more to reduce the incidence of ship collisions in the waters.