Spatio-Temporal Evolution Of Land Use Carbon Emissions And Its Influencing Factors In Hunan Province Based On GIS-GWR

With the global warming caused by the greenhouse effect,the world's economic,social and ecological environment have a significant impact,has become a global problem.Today,land use is second only to fossil fuel burning as the main cause of the increase in global atmospheric carbon dioxide.The rationality of land use structure not only affects the development of urbanization,but also is an important factor of carbon emission,which makes land use carbon emission become one of the important research subjects of carbon emission.Hunan Province is not only one of the provinces implementing the important strategy of the rise of the central region,It is also the"chang-zhu-tan"city group as our country"two-oriented society"construction comprehensive matching reform experimental area,is the country promotes the new industrialization and the urbanization important strategic measure.Land resources are an important material basis and resource guarantee for social and economic development.The use of land resources has a direct impact on the increase and decrease of carbon emissions.A more scientific and reasonable structure of land use types can be obtained by studying the spatial and temporal differences of carbon emissions from land use in Hunan Province.It is of great significance to develop low-carbon economy,strengthen intensive land use and realize low-carbon land use for"two-oriented society".In this paper,the carbon emission of 14 low-grade cities and 122county-level regions in Hunan Province is taken as the research object.The data of land-use Carbon Emission in Hunan province was calculated by IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)Carbon Emission Coefficient method(discount Standard Coal Coefficient,carbon emission coefficient).Spatial Exploratory Analysis(EDSA)and geographic regression model(GWR)of Arcgis software and Geographic Information System(Gis)were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of land use carbon emissions in Hunan Province.The conclusions are as follows:(1)All types of land use in Hunan Province generally show an increasing state,except unused land.The increment of other land use types is grassland,town and village,traffic and industrial and mining land,farmland,woodland,other agricultural land,Garden Land and water conservancy facilities land.The increases were 33.5×104hm~2?15.54×104hm~2?30.75×104hm~2?36.79×104hm~2?24.2×104hm~2?34.64×104hm~2?0.37×104hm~2,The decrease of unused land was 158.98×104hm~2.The biggest change speed is grassland,and its change degree is0.2919.Combined with the comprehensive degree index of land use.From 2005 to 2009,the land use in Hunan Province showed an upward trend year by year,and was in a developing period.2009-2011was a recession.2011-2017 is back to growth.(2)In the calculation results of land use carbon emissions in Hunan Province.The carbon emission from cultivated land increased steadily year by year.The carbon absorption of grassland and water conservancy facilities had no obvious change.The amount of carbon absorbed by the garden plot and the unused plot decreased continuously.The carbon absorption of forest land increased as a whole.The carbon emission from construction land is the main source of carbon emission from land use in Hunan Province,accounting for 95%of the total carbon emission.In spatial autocorrelation research,There is a positive spatial correlation between Land Carbon Emission in the study area,and the distribution of land carbon emission is aggregated.The overall Moran'S I index dropped 0.03 points in 2017 from 2010.The spatial concentration characteristics of carbon emissions are weakened.The western part of Hunan Province is always in the low concentration area,while the central part of Hunan Province is always in the high concentration area.(3)The results show that the spatial variation of the Regression Coefficient of the total population is large.The spatial difference is also increasing,which shows that the driving effect on land-use carbon emissions is decreasing,but the increase of the total population will still affect the growth of carbon emissions.Industrial structure and land carbon emissions are mostly negative correlation,the range of regression coefficient changes greatly,the impact of a growing spatial difference.It shows that the industrial structure has a great influence on the land use carbon emission,but there is a spatial difference in the promotion of the carbon emission.The regression coefficients of per capita energy consumption in GWR model are all positive,but the values are close to 0,and the change range is not big.The range of the values of energy consumption varies greatly,there are positive and negative values,and the difference is large,which proves that energy consumption plays a greater role in promoting carbon emissions,and there is a spatial difference in the effects of energy consumption on land use carbon emissions.