Forest Carbon Sequestration Demand Potential Prediction And Simulation Based On Industry Emission Reduction

As one of the most significant challenges facing human society in this century,global warming has become a hot research focus.Forests are the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems.By absorbing the CO2 in the air to reduce the concentration of the gas in the atmosphere,it can achieve the unique effect of mitigating climate warming.Mitigating climate warming is imminent,but the actual demand for forestry carbon sequestration affects CO2 emissions.Therefore,This article assumes that the emission reduction industry purchases forest carbon sinks to reduce emissions based on the carbon emission offset ratio of the pilot regions,and conducts research on the demand potential of forest carbon sinks in the seven pilot regions.The article takes the seven carbon trading pilot areas of Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Hubei,Chongqing,Guangdong and Shenzhen as the research objects,sorts out the relevant data of the industry for 10 years,and uses the directional distance function to obtain the carbon margin of the industrial sector in each region.Then,It uses the forest carbon sequestration demand potential model,to analyze the relationship between its demand potential and carbon marginal abatement cost,to derive the potential demand data of the past decade;By changing the parameter values of its influencing factors and by means of the simulation prediction of cloud model,the potential value of forest carbon sequestration demand in the industrial sector in the next decade will be obtained.The results show that:(1)There are significant differences in the carbon marginal abatement costs of the industrial sectors in the seven pilot regions of China,and there is a positive correlation between the forestry carbon sequestration demand potential and the carbon marginal abatement cost;(2)The rate and industrial incentive policyhave a positive impact on the forestry carbon sequestration demand potential of the emission reduction industry,and the self-technology emission reduction subsidy rate plays a significant inverse role;(3)The forest in the next decade The carbon sink demand potential will increase from an average of 20 million tons in the past decade to 45 million tons.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)to increase the penalties for the enterprises in the pilot areas to exceed the bank;(2)to adhere to the implementation of the purchase of forestry carbon sequestration subsidies for enterprises and the implementation of self-technology emission reduction subsidies for enterprises(3)To improve the emission quota allocation model in the pilot areas,we must adhere to the principle of moderately tight;(4)while local governments implement strict emission reductions for enterprises,they can also implement positive policies for some enterprises that are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood.Industrial incentive policy.This provides a reference for promoting the actual demand potential of China's forestry carbon sequestration and the future development of the carbon market.