Study On Climate Trend Analysis Of Mudanjiang City Based On M-K Method

Agriculture is a basic development industry in China.The development of agriculture depends on the climate.It is necessary to understand and master the climate change and the occurrence,development process and formation causes of climate anomalies and the future development and changes through the assessment,diagnostic analysis and prediction of climate change.This article selects 2000 to 2019,the latest time range as the research time series,using the monthly temperature and precipitation data of meteorological stations in Mudanjiang City comprehensive utilization method of linear trend,Mann Kendall mutation test and R/S standard process all aspects of multi-level reveals the evolution law of the time series of climate factors and predict the future development trend,strengthen climate forecast veracity and practical,for the study of regional agricultural development to provide the most accurate advice.The linear trend method was used to calculate the climate trend rate and the Mann-Kendall mutation test was used to detect the mutation node and the confidence level.The results show that the average annual temperature of Mudanjiang City shows an increasing trend year by year in the study interval,and the temperature change from 2000 to2019 is generally relatively stable,and the average annual temperature changes suddenly in2009.The temperature in spring,autumn and winter increases,while the temperature in summer decreases,and the temperature trend is stable without sudden change.The average annual precipitation from 2000 to 2019 develops steadily,and there is no sudden change in precipitation.The development trend of precipitation in the four seasons is relatively stable.For nearly two decades,from 2000 to 2019,there was no sudden time point.According to R/S rescaled range method,the Hurst index of annual average temperature,seasonal temperature,annual average precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Mudanjiang Cityis calculated.In the four seasons,the Hurst index is greater than 0.5,which is consistent with the corresponding development trend in the early stage.Among them,the Hurst index in autumn is 0.593,indicating that its persistence is weak.The annual temperature in Mudanjiang City will continue to rise and change,and the average autumn temperature is likely to change dramatically between 2020 and 2022.Therefore,more attention should be paid to ensure that the temperature change in autumn can be prevented.Precipitation inMudanjiang City will be stable in the near future within the scope of the study time series,and the development trend of each season is consistent with that of the previous period.However,the precipitation in winter tends to decrease,so the precipitation resources should be used reasonably.In Mudanjiang City,there is an obvious Hurst phenomenon.Generally,the sequence of temperature and precipitation is dominated by the continuation of the past trend.In general,the climate resources of Mudanjiang City have changed to a certain extent in the past 20 years,and the overall change is beneficial to the development of agricultural production.Scientific and rational comprehensive utilization of climate resources combined with other measures to increase production and income will certainly promote Mudanjiang City's agricultural development.