| Water resource is one of the most fundamental elements to maintain human life and support economic growth and green development.It is a long-term and important task to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources and give full play to the economic,social and ecological benefits of water resources.Due to the complex uncertainty of water resources system,how to solve these uncertainties is the focus of the study of water resource system.The adjoint function of connection number is a new method to solve the problem of complex uncertainty.Based on the fully research the adjoint function of connection number,this paper constructs three adjoint functions of multivariate set pair subtractive situation,effect full partial connection number and full partial certainty degree,which are used in water resources system.The following main achievements have been achieved as follows:(1)The method of grey correlation and connection number coupling is used to improve the calculation method of difference coefficient,and the method of vulnerability analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought in Bengbu City is constructed based on multivariate set pair subtractive situation,and water consumption per unit of agricultural added value is the main index affecting the vulnerability of agricultural drought in Bengbu City.The results show that the evaluation grade of Bengbu City's agricultural drought vulnerability is reduced from over 3 grade in2001-2003 to 3 grade in 2004-2010,which shows that the vulnerability of agricultural drought is weakening,and the agricultural system's ability to withstand drought is improving step by step.(2)Based on the idea of comparative analysis of partial positive connection number and partial negative connection number,the total partial connection coefficient of effect is summarized and put forward.Compared with the existing calculation methods of partial connection coefficient,the calculation result of total partial connection coefficient of effect is closer to the reality,and the bearing capacity of water resources in Anhui Province is analyzed and evaluated.The results show that in 2006,the evaluation level of water resources carrying capacity is the highest and the water resources carrying capacity is the weakest.In 2015,the evaluation level of water resources carrying capacity is the lowest and the water resources carrying capacity is the strongest.In 2005-2015,the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province is in aslow change and shows a trend of getting better year by year,and the fluctuation of water resources carrying capacity between adjacent years is small.(3)In order to dynamically evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural drought,a new adjoint function,total partial certainty,is constructed by constructing the increment function of the change of the number of links and improving the determination method of the coefficient of difference by virtue of the dynamic change of each component of the number of links.It is used in the analysis and evaluation of the vulnerability of agricultural drought in Bengbu City.The results show that the vulnerability degree of agricultural drought in Bengbu City is relatively stable from 2001 to 2010.It is level 4in 2001-2003,and it is level 3 in other years.The vulnerability degree of Bengbu City is decreasing year by year,and the bearing capacity of agricultural system for drought is increasing year by year.To sum up,the adjoint function of connection number can be used to study the uncertainty in water resources system.It has good applicability in water resources carrying capacity,agricultural drought and other fields.The method is simple and operable,which can provide scientific basis and theory basis for water resources system management and control.The adjoint function of connection number expands the research idea of analyzing the uncertainty of water resources system,and plays an active role in promoting the quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of water resources system. |
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