A Time-series Study On Diurnal Temperature Range On Non-accidental Death In Shushan District Of Hefei City,2015-2016

Objective 1.To understand the main meteorological factors and the distribution characteristics of non-accidental deaths in Shushan District of Hefei City from 2015to 2016;2.Poisson's Generalized Linear Regression Model and Distributed Delay Nonlinear Model?DLNM?were used to analyze the effect of diurnal temperature difference on mortality.3.The influence of diurnal temperature difference on non-accidental deaths of different subgroups was analyzed and vulnerable populations were obtained.Methods:Daily monitoring data,including temperature,relative humidity,PM2.5,PM₁₀?NO₂?SO₂?CO and O₃,were collected from meteorological departments and environmental protection departments in Shushan District from 2015 to 2016.Daily death monitoring data including sex,age,marriage and educational level were collected.Poisson's generalized linear regression model combined with distributed delay nonlinear model?DLNM?was used to analyze the effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality.The effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality due to disease was further discussed under the control of major air pollutants.Results:?1?A total of 5750 non-accidental deaths were collected in Shushan District of Hefei City from 2015 to 2016.Among them,61%?3484/5750?were males,77%?4430/5750?were over 65 years old.The average non-accidental deaths were 7.4 per day in this district,including 6.1 persons over 65 years old and 4.8 males per day.The average daily death was due to cardiovascular diseases.There were 3.3 deaths.?2?Spearman correlation analysis showed that the diurnal temperature range was positively correlated with PM_2.5,SO₂,NO₂ and O₃(PM_2.5,rs=0.24,P<0.01;SO₂,rs=0.31,P<0.01;NO2,rs=0.28,P<0.01;O3,rs=0.43,P<0.01).?3?the linear relationship between diurnal temperature range and non-accidental death in population The median difference between day and night temperature?8.2??was taken as a comparison standard,and the relationship between the difference and the risk of death was nonlinear,and the risk of death increased with the increase of the difference between day and night temperature;the temperature corresponding to the lowest risk?5.2??was taken as a comparison standard,and the difference between day and night temperature was parabolic with the risk of non-accidental death.Sexual relationships,that is,the risk of death increases with the increase of temperature difference between day and night,and then gradually decreases,but the overall relative risk is greater than 1;with the temperature corresponding to the lowest risk?5.2??as a comparison benchmark,the day-night temperature difference of 75percent?11.2??compared with the lowest risk?5.2??in stagnation.The risk of death reached the maximum on the third day after death,and the lag effect continued to lag 5 day.?4?By age stratification,it was found that people over 65 were more susceptible to day-night temperature difference,and the hazard effect reached the maximum of 1.07?95%CI:1.01-1.12?on the second day.At the same time,it was found that people with higher education level were more susceptible to day-night temperature difference than those with lower education level.?5?Analysis of the effect of diurnal temperature difference on healthy life years:Comparing the 95%corresponding death risk of diurnal temperature difference with that of 50%corresponding death risk,the results showed that the decrease of diurnal temperature difference on healthy life years was almost the same from the day of exposure to the third day of exposure lag,while it was the fourth day of exposure.Days later,this effect was significantly reduced.Taking the median?8.2??as the baseline,it was found that the number of years of healthy life loss increased with the increase of temperature difference between day and night.Conclusion the increase of temperature difference between day and night will increase the risk of death and delay.Therefore,we should reduce the emission of major air pollutants,and do a good job of protective measures when the temperature difference between day and night is large,in order to reduce its health.