Analysis Of Time Series About Lijiang Tourism Stock Price Based On The ARIMA Model

With continuous development of our country's economy the stock market has been improved at all levels and play an important role in the economic society.On one hand,changes and developments in the stock market measured the economic development of the enterprise.On the other hand,stock investment also became a means for people to obtain economic benefits.The relationships between stock market development and economics development become more and more close.Stock price variability is the comprehensive reflection of national economic policies and residents living conditions.With continuous development of the stock market,how to accurately analyze the change of stock price trends become an important research topic.Accurate analysis on the trend of the stock price is very important for a country to make policy improve macro-control and maintain rapid economic development,and also be helpful for investors to make optimal choice.The change of stock price is a very complicated nonlinear dynamic trend.The traditional linear model is not suitable to describe and analyze stock data.However,the time series model could be used to describe the stock price changes.In his paper,we collected the stock daily closing price of Lijiang tourism enterprise from January 2015 to December 2016.First we simply described the change of stock price and found the changes of the stock price do not fluctuate around a certain value.Through observing and pretreating the stock price series,we found the time series is non-stationary.Then the first order difference method is used for smooth processing and ARIMA model is applied to fit the data.According to the AIC criterion and the corrected coefficient of AIC,the optimal ARIMA model is determined and is used to predict the trend of stock price changes.Through research and analysis,this paper concludes the Lijiang tourism stock prices not only influenced by random factors,the lag of 5 issue of the stock price has a great impact on the current stock price,from the overall,the tendency of the Lijiang tourism stock price is stable.