Research On Credit Risk Assessment Of Small And Micro Enterprises In P2P Online Lengding

Small and micro enterprises in China have become an important part of the national economic development because of their wide industry coverage,large number of employees,and their rapid and flexible growth.While continuously adding new impetus to the economic development of the country,it plays an irreplaceable and important role in promoting technological innovation,expanding employment scope and increasing state taxes.However,the existence and development of small and micro enterprises have been limited by the single financing source,high financing risk and high cost.The deep-rooted reason for these problems is the information asymmetry,the small and micro enterprises have a serious lack of credit information,and their credit risk is high.On the other hand,with the rise and promotion of Internet finance,the emergence of P2P online lending platforms has reduced the negative impact of asymmetric information to a certain extent.Moreover,the process of matching demand by both lenders and borrowers is transparent and efficient,which can meet the needs of smaller and higher-frequency financing by small and micro enterprises.Therefore,in recent years,small and micro enterprises that have opted to apply for working capital on P2P online lending platform have been increasing day by day.However,the compliance and reliability of Chinese P2P lending companies are uneven,and due to the existence of imperfect credit rating system and imperfect risk control mechanisms,the high credit risk has become one of the main problems faced by Chinese P2P lending platforms.Therefore,in order to above the above situation,this thesis selected "Renrendai" platform as the research object to study the credit characteristics and default rules of small and micro enterprises,and evaluated their credit risk.This thesis first reviewed the theoretical basis of P2P online lending behavior and credit risk of small and micro enterprises,combed the related literatures of influencing factors of P2P lending's credit risk and small and micro enterprises'credit risk assessment model,summarized the credit characteristics and the future development trend of small and micro enterprises' credit risk management,aim at establishing the theoretical foundation for variables selection,classification and assignment of the subsequent model building.Then,I analyzed the financing status and existing problems of Chinese small and micro enterprises,and discussed the development of credit evaluation.On this basis,I identified high quality network lending platform,selected research variables from the displayed information and made the corresponding assignment and classification,and built a credit risk assessment of model for small and micro businesses on P2P lending,which based on binary Logistic regression method.The empirical results showed that the overall judgment accuracy of the model in predicting the results of repayments of small and micro enterprises is 88.9%,among them,the correct rate of prediction for default is 85.2%.Meanwhile,this thesis tested the accuracy of this model and obtained the ideal prediction performance.In addition,the study found that small and micro enterprises' loan information displayed on P2P platform has significant effects on the probability of overdue default:the four variables such as amount,interest rate,length of working,the number of loan application are positively correlated with the possibility of overdue default;Age,marital status,credit rating,the number of repayment had negative correlations with the possibility of default.Besides,the loan term,educational background and monthly income of the business owner have no obvious influence on the repayment results.Based on the above research results,this thesis put forward some valuable suggestions for improving the credit risk assessment system of small and micro enterprises in China with the perspective of P2P lending.