Research On Decision-making On Concession Period For Toll Road BOT Project

BOT model has been increasingly widely used in highway construction with the advantages of strong financing ability,but in practice often due to the concession period decision-making is not reasonable,the government takes too many responsibilities or the investor takes the initiative to give up,resulting in the implementation of BOT toll road projects are not ideal.If the concession period is too long,it will cause the investor to obtain excess profits,which will greatly increase the burden on society,cause widespread concern in public opinion,and even lead to the public questioned the rationality of BOT model of toll road.If the concession period is too short,in order to recover the cost as soon as possible,the investor may reduce the construction cost of toll roads,resulting in the quality of toll roads are not up to standard.Therefore,the scientific decision-making of the concession period has very important theoretical significance and practical value to the toll road BOT project.First,based on the review of research status at home and abroad,this paper analyzes and summarizes the shortcomings of the existing theoretical research,summarizes the importance and impact factors of toll road concession period of BOT project,which lay theoretical basis for the construction of toll highway BOT project concession period model.Second,this paper summarizes the option game theory and compared with the traditional method of investment decision superiority,expounds the general framework of option game theory,and analyzes the application of option game theory in highway BOT project,which provides the basis for the construction of a scientific method of decision model of concession period toll highway BOT project options based on game theory.Third,this paper establishes a model of highway BOT project concession period decision-making based on option game theory,considering the influence of the concession period of construction cost,maintenance cost,traffic volume,price,investors remained utility and option value and other factors on highway BOT project,sets the parameters,and through the sensitivity analysis of impact simulation and case the parameters of the concession period,proves the validity of the model.The results of this thesis show that the concession period decision of BOT project of toll highway based on the option game theory is better than based on the general game model,which can improve the social welfare under the premise of ensuring the benefit of the investor.In view of the scientific and effective decision-making of the concession period,the following suggestions are made to the investor and the government: Investors should continue to innovate and improve the competitiveness of enterprises,regularly disclose the business data and improve corporate social responsibility;The government should improve the laws and regulations and the quality supervision mechanism of toll roads,scientifically predict the traffic volume and retention effect of toll road BOT project,and strictly abide by the decision making principle of concession period of BOT project of toll road.