Study On Coordinated Relationship And Countermeasures About Industrialization,Urbanization And Agricultural Modernization In Shandong

The development of agricultural modernization is facing a severe test with the deepening of industrialization—the deepening of urbanization and numerous outflow of rural labor force and funds.Achieving the coordinated development of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization is the inherent requirements of regional social and economic development,but also the reality choice to promote the coordinated development of regional economy.Shandong Province is one of China's most economically developed Provinces,its process of urbanization is progressing steadily.Shandong Province is also a large agricultural province with a large agricultural population base.Therefore,measuring the degree of coordinated development of agricultural modernization,industrialization,urbanization of Shandong Province and studying on the interactive development relationship of them have a certain practical significance for the development of urban and rural areas and positive interaction about the agricultural modernization,industrialization.Based on the theoretical basis of coordinated development of the agricultural modernization,industrialization,urbanization and achieving regional socio-economic development for the purpose,this paper studies the coordinated development in Shandong province by combining theory with practice.Based on panel data of Shandong province during 2001-2015,this paper estimates agricultural total factor productivity by the DEA index method and taken it as the indicators of agricultural modernization.This paper studies the coupling of them by the methods of coupling coordinated degree model and analysis Dynamic relationship by panel vector auto regression model.The research shows that the coordinated development level of Shandong Province shows a steady improvement trend and 17 cities in Shandong have different levels of improvement,however,due to the different regional differences,there is still a large room for improvement.From the distribution area,the coordinated development level of the "modernization,industrialization,urbanization" subsystems in the coastal areas of Shandong Province is higher than that in the inland areas.The interactive testes further verify the "modernization,industrialization,urbanization" coordinated development level is low.The agricultural total factor productivity show increasing trend,but there is significant difference in different region and the average of them is low.There is significant promoting effect between industrialization to urbanization,but there is not significant mutual relationship between agricultural modernization and them.Industrialization and urbanization are showing mutual Granger causality while there is no granger relationship between agricultural with them.The weaker interactive relationship between industrialization,urbanization and agricultural leads the difference development of agricultural modernization,industrialization and urbanization.The results of that prove coordinated development level is low in Shandong Province.Therefore,this paper puts forward several specific policy suggestion on how to push forward coordinated development of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural in Shandong province.