Research On Development Time Sequence Decision Making Of Project Group Based On Multi-attribute Group Decision Making In The Case Of Urban Complex

Since the Twelfth Five-Year Plan,the investments of important engineering projects have been reinforced a lot in our country and large engineering project with the form of ‘project group' have become the emphasis of investment.Project group have the characteristics of large-scale investment,long cycle of construction,subprojects' complexity and being restricted by resources from many respects.Compared with common engineering project,the project group is much more difficult,which means high requirements of previous investment decision-making should be put forward.However,many decision-makers and experts are willing to pay more attention to the optimization of investment structure of project group,while the decision-making of development time sequence of project group are always ignored now.Substantial form of project group represented by the urban complex which is under the marketing guidance is an especial case.Development failure problems caused by the difficulties in construction funds,inefficacy of value and poor performance in economic and social effects due to the ignorance of previous development time sequence are not rare.As a result,great losses of private capitals which dominate the investment will be caused.The waste of urban resources may even appear.Therefore,the decisions of development time sequence of project group play important roles of arranging investment plans reasonably and achieving the development success of project group.Also,it is a nonnegligible step of previous investment decision.In order to realize the scientific decision-making of development time sequence of project group and explore effective methods,taking the urban complex as an example,this thesis makes a research on the quantitative decision-making methods of development time sequence of project group.The main research contents of this thesis include three parts as follows: In the first part,the thesis makes the definition relationship between urban complex and project group clear.Based on the angel of project group,the definition of urban complex is sublimated.Also,the thesis analyzes and states the essence of development time sequence problems of project group and urban complex in this part.In the second part,from the respect of strategic target,relevant subjects and resource conditions,the thesis analyzes and extracts the main influential factors of development time sequence of urban complex.Building comprehensive influential factors system of development time sequence of urban complex and constructing the preference matrices of privilege model under the system are also stated in this part.In the third part,based on the influential factors system of development time sequence of urban complex,constructing the decision-making index system of development time sequence at the angel of project group and building the urban complex multi-format development time sequence multi-attribute group decision-making model are stated.During the construction of decision-making model,it is required to do decision-making index weighting by the combination weighting method based on game theory,do decision-making expert weighting by objective weighting method based on evidence distance and fulfill the final decision by the idea of decision-making aggregating which puts the experts' information ahead based on TOPSIS.In the end,with the analysis and research,the thesis establishes the multi-attribute group decision-making model of the development time sequence of urban complex and puts forward the integrated process of multi-attribute group decision-making of the development time sequence of urban complex.At the same time,the quantitative decision making process of urban complex development time sequence is demonstrated perfectly through the optimization of the scheme on decision-making of the development time sequence of Qingdao ‘sea Carnival' project based on the decision model established in this paper,which verified the reliability and feasibility of the quantitative decision-making method of development time sequence proposed in this paper.The results show that,as a typical form of project group guided by the "market behavior",it will be helpful to improve the accuracy and reliability of the time sequence decision-making of urban complex to fully grasp impact factors of development time sequence and use the scientific and efficient decision-making methods of development time sequence.The multi-attribute group decision-making model of the development time sequence of urban complex established in this paper will also provide the time sequence decision-making of the project group development with useful guidance and experience further,which has a widely application prospect.