Energy Economic Modeling With Different Dimensional Data And China's Energy Peak Prediction

Explore the energy consumption trends is the basic work for programming energy strategy. International experience is worth learning, but the historical experience of any single country can hardly be the reference for other countries since the heterogeneity between states, industries and technology. Based oil multi-dimensional data, this thesis constructs a dynamic piecewise linear spline model to explore the international energy consumption trajectory and provide a base for decisioh-making.Dynamic piecewise linear spline model is self-adaptive and it avoids setting the model form in advance. Robustness checks are emphasized using different model specifications, control variable and estimation methods. Also, the predicted energy peaks from three sections are compared in order to test the results robustness. The data includes not only panel data which covers over 60 countries and over 50 years, but also includes the three-dimensional data, i.e. "over 60:countries × over 50 years × 5 industries". The three-dimensional data considers the correlation between the industries, extends the basic data of research, enhances the statistical significance of the conclusions and controls more unobserved factors. The main contents include:(1) This thesis discusses the historical trajectory of energy consumption along with economic development and the results show that on average, per capita energy consumption increases with the economic growth in a relatively early stage of economic development, and shows a trend of saturation or even decline after reaching a certain economic level, which is 19 thousand USD (in 2005 constant prices, purchasing power parity, the same below). Since energy consumption is mainly driven by the investment, it is necessary to explore the relationship between energy consumption and capital formation from the demand-side perspective and discuss the impact of China's future investment rate changes on its energy peak. Results show that high investment rates will lead to higher energy levels and later peak time. Based on "energy-investment" model, in high investment rate scenario^ China's total energy consumption will reach its peak in 2032 and the peak energy is about 6 billion tons of standard oil (toe) (the corresponding per capita GDP is 29 thousand USD):in low investment rate scenario, the peak will reached in 2029 and the value is about 5.4 billion toe (25 thousand USD).(2) This thesis explores the relationship between road transport energy consumption and economic growth using international data and discusses the revelation for the original BRIC countries. Results show that per capita road transport energy consumption on average increases first as per capita GDP increases, then flattens after-reaching a turning point occurring at the per capita GDP of 19 thousand USD. Road transport energy consumption peak,of China is 609 million toe in 20.39, with per capita GDP of 39 thousand USD.(3) This,; thesis analyzes the sectoral patterns of energy use based oil three-dimensional (countryxsectofxyear) data, covering inter-sector relations;, then based on the patterns, forecasts China's future energy use. Results show that, on average, per capita energy consumption (no matter for the gross or sub-sectors) increases as economic growth, but Starts to decrease as per capita GDP pass beyond a threshold point which is different between different sectors. In low investment rate scenario, China's gross energy use will reach the peak in 2032 and the value is about 5,1 billion toe (29 thousand USD), China's industrial sector will reach the peak in around 2023, the peak volume is about L2 billion toe (18 thousand USD); household sector will reach a peak in around 2031, with the peak volume of 0.72 billion toe (27 thousand USD); transport sector is peaked in about 2036 and the peak capacity is 0.6 billion toe (35 thousand USD).Predictions of this thesis are based on "business as; usual" scenario. If China adopted stronger binding energy conservation policies in the future, the actual use of energy will be lower than the predicted value in this thesis.:The results of the thesis provide a baseline for integrated assessment model.