| With the rapid development of the Internet in recent years, the number of network rumors also increases exponentially. The rumor exits for centuries. However,when it plugged with the wings of Internet, its fast spreading speed, its wide spreading range and its serious damages are traditional rumors cannot be matched. The Micro blog and Wechat and other self-medias spring up which makes that everyone is a microphone and everyone can make voice. These self-medias have a large number of users with strong stickiness and update timely and the information can be easily uploaded. Because of these characteristics, the self-medias have become the main source of the network rumors. <Foreign Policy> of US has said “China's Sina Weibo is the world's best rumor-mongering machine ever.” Although rumors have a certain positive impact, such as releasing social pressure, as a fact, the negative impacts are far more than the positive ones. Rumors involves multiple aspects, economic, people's livelihood and national security which have a significant influence on social stability and people's security. As a consequence, how to detect a rumor earlier and explore the laws of rumor spreading to block it effectively has become a research focus.The main research works of this article are as follows:(1) Summarize the relevant definitions of rumors and network rumors and put forward own views on the basis of previous works.(2) Introduce the relevant research about rumor spreading models and describe the classical epidemic models in details.(3) Construct a rumor early warning model based on kinetic energy. The kinetic energy of a message represents the message's influence. On the basis of substantial experiments, find out the threshold of messages' mean kinetic energy. If a message's energy is larger than the threshold, some measures should be taken to monitor the message. Once confirmed a rumor, it should be nipped in the bud. The experimental results show that the model has a good warning effect.(4) Construct a rumor spreading model based on potential energy. The people's potential energy reflects the rumor's attraction on him. If the potential energy exceeds the threshold, then the people will become a rumor spreader, forming new gravitation field to attract the neighbors. This model takes many factors into consideration,including the importance of rumor, individual discrimination, the number of spreaders and so on. We conduct experiments on the Netlogo simulation platform to simulate the process of rumor spreading and explore the law of spreading. Furthermore, based on three typical rumor cases, we take use of the spreading model to conduct simulation experiments. The results dovetail nicely with the development of the three cases which verifies the accuracy of the spreading model.(5) Analyze different factors playing roles in different stages of rumor spreading by experiments and calculations. Explore the main factors in prime stage, medium stage and later stage of rumor spreading respectively and provide the relevant advises.(6) Summary the conclusions and disadvantages of this article and point out the problems to solve and the study directions in the future. |
PDF Full Text Request