A Research On Technology Opportunity Forecasting System Based On Link Prediction

In the context of the current knowledge economic environment, the level of technological development has become an important measure for national innovation capacity and international competitiveness. This puts forward requirements for us to base on the needs of social development, analysis the development trend of science and technology, predict the technological opportunities, and further grasp the direction of the industry or technology initiative. Through the study of technology development trend and evolution path, research on its development and evolution model, furthermore deduce the future trends and evolution path of technology, identify the latest development trend of technology, predict the possible emergent point of technology development in future, it's so called technological opportunities forecast.This article is intended for the convergence technology, which is the innovation and formation of combining a plurality of technology. Predict the possibility of convergence of one particular technology and other existing technology, propose a link prediction based technological opportunities model. From the method perspective, there are few approach enables predicting technological opportunities from the knowledge flow network of technology convergence, so we need to build an efficient technological opportunities prediction model based on network analysis. From the technology perspective, the storage technique of patent knowledge network has limitations, we need to design and implement a patent semantic knowledge base for storing the network information of proprietary knowledge. Through the application of the knowledge base, achieving the automatic construction of technical knowledge flow network, thus achieving the automatic technology opportunities forecast.In this study, we construct patent knowledge flow network based on patent information, then we use the link prediction and machine learning methods achieving future link prediction and links weight prediction, finally realize technological opportunities prediction. Then we design technological opportunities prediction system, research on the key technologies of patent semantic knowledge base instantiation and patent semantic retrieval, package the related algorithms of technology opportunities mining, and accomplish prototyping system. Finally, using the patent information of cloud computing to carry out empirical research of technical opportunities prediction, verify the availability of model and systems.The innovation of this paper is: First, from the perspective of knowledge flows, propose a link prediction based technological opportunities prediction model; Second, research on patent semantic knowledge base instantiate algorithm based on graph database Neo4 j and semantic knowledge retrieval, achieve the automatic construction of patent semantic knowledge base. Third design and achieve technology opportunities prototype prediction system.