Study On The Total Power Prediction And Optimization Of Farm Machinery In Xinjiang Corps

As a modern means of production,agricultural machanization is the representative of agricultural advanced productive forces,an important material basis of modern agriculture,an effective way to promote farmers’ income,the vital forces to promote the economic development and an important part of building the new socialist countryside.It occupies a central position of agricultural modernization and plays an extremely important role in agricultural development.In recent years,the rapid development of agricultural mechanization in Xinjiang Corps has played a huge role in the agricultural modernization,new industrialization,urbanization of Corps.However,there were some noteworthy problems in the rapid development of agricultural mechanization,such as the lack of scientific and rational calculation and planning of the agricultural machinery demand,the lack of prediction of demand for agricultural machinery;over-emphasis on short time to complete the production tasks,forced the operation period,shorten the operation period,reasonable,led to the irrational agricultural machinery,the excess equipment of agricultural machinery and other serious problems.This paper made the prediction of agricultural machinery power and the optimization of agricultural machinery equipped of Xinjiang corps,and put forward the forecasting model of the agricultural machinery power of Xinjiang corps in the new situation,and made a prediction.The linear programming model of 105 farm was established,and got the better result.The paper mainly included the following aspects:This paper studyed the present situation of agricultural machinery power development in Xinjiang Corps,and analyzed the present situation and existing problems of the agricultural machinery.Based on the analysis and research on the theory and method of agricultural machinery selection at home and abroad,and combined with the actual situation of crops,this paper discussed the principles and the main methods of agricultural machinery equipment,the construction principle of agricultural machinery equipment model.Based on the data of Xinjiang Agricultural Corps in 2007 to 2014,two kinds of forecasting models of principal component regression and gray regression were established by mathematical statistics.The average relative error of model were 0.57% and 0.46%,respectively.The prediction model could truly reflect the change law of the agricultural machinery power.Therefore,the gray regression prediction model was used to predict the agricultural machinery power of the Corps in 2015-2019 years,and the predicted value of the agricultural machinery power of Xinjiang Corps was 520.1766 million kW,554.5278 million kW,590.3374 million KW,627.6668 million kW and 666.58 million kW.The prediction value was verified.The relative error between the predicted value and the actual value in 2015 was 4.10%,and the error was small.It showed that the model was reliable and could be used for the short-term prediction of the power of agricultural machinery in Xinjiang Corps.On the basis of the thorough investigation of agricultural production of the sixth division 105 farm,according to the planting pattern of the main crops and the requirements of the mechanized operation,making the agricultural mechanization operation process of whole year,gave priority to the existing models of agricultural implement selected the commonly used tractors and other farm implements,using linear programming method and work method to build agricultural optimization model and using LINGO software to solve the problem.The optimized scheme of 105 farm was obtained.Compared with the actual equipment,the scheme could not only guarantee quality and quantity on time to complete the production tasks,but also could reduce the power machinery with 87.68%,reduce farm equipment with 62.74%,reduce agricultural investment 4.2579 million yuan.The forecasting model of power of agricultural machinery and the equipment model of agricultural machinery have been established,which has a certain guiding significance to the corps of agricultural machinery and equipment structure optimization.The prediction result of total power and equipment with optimization results of the Sixth Division 105 farm of agricultural machinery has important reference value.