Comprehensive Risk Assessment Of The Snow Disaster In Qinghai Province

This paper mainly uses a combination of subjective and objective methods and Logistic regression model to analyze and study the average risk division and classification of the snow disaster in Qinghai pastoral region by using ArcGIS,SPSS and EXCEL tools.Firstly,this study collect data on 19 factors that led to the snow disaster in Qinghai.Then through the method of Factor Analysis to filter factors,and using Logistic regression model to further screening the initial factors,and identifying five risk assessment factors,namely,Per capita GDP,annual average temperature,number of snow-covered days and Maximum depth,and slope.Finally,to make the snow disaster average risk zoning map from 2001 to 2007 for the Qinghai pastoral region by the spatial analysis tool of ArcGIS.The result indicates:Through the method of Factor Analysis and Logistic regression model,this paper determines the five risk assessment factors(Per capita GDP,annual average temperature,Maximum depth,slope and number of snow-covered days).Then based on the five risk assessment factors to build the snow disaster risk assessment model in Qinghai pastoral region;The snow disaster of average risk distribution and risk factors for maximum depth,slope,and number of snow-covered days have a consistent trend,in contrast to the distribution trend of annual mean temperature and Per capita GDP;The interannual variability of number of snow-covered days,Maximum depth,annual average temperature,Per capita GDP show an increasing trend.Among them,number of snow-covered days and Maximum depth have the very good consistency;Risk is high in the south and low in the north,high risk areas are mainly distributed in the south region of Qinghai Province including Chengduo,Yushu,Xiangqian,Dari,Gande,Maqin while Qaidam Basin in the northwest and the eastern agricultural are low risk areas.