The Dynamic Characteristics Of Groundwater Level In The People’s Victory Canal Irrigation District

As an important main producing area of grain in HeNan province,People’s Victory Canal not only promoted the sustainable development of agriculture in our country,guaranteed our country’s food security,but also played an important role in promoting the development of regional economy and the protection of the canal water and soil.In recent years,a series of serious problems such as uneven distribution,excessive exploitation and deterioration of water environment appeared in the canal.Some landing groundwater depression cones formed and some geological hazards occured.Trough the statistic analysis of the historical data and the Monitoring data of People’s Victory Canal groundwater buried depth,we can know the space-time evolution of canal groundwater buried depth and predict the variation trend of canal groundwater buried depth.It can provide theoretical basis to the sustainable utilization of water and soil resources,the of security ecological environment and regional social and the sustainable and healthy development of Regional social economy of the canal.It can provide decision basis to make Soil and water conservation planning,make agricultural development planning,the protection and management of ecological environment and make social economic development planning by the the administrative departments at all levels.We can draw the contour map of canal groundwater buried depth by doing interpolation to canal annual average groundwater buried depth in 1993,1998,2003,2008,2013 with the Kriging interpolation method by using the Surfer software.Combined with the contour map can we can know the spatial variation of canal groundwater buried depth,that is,in the middle of canal groundwater buried depth is more larger than around,and canal groundwater buried depth decreased gradually from the west to the east.Through the statistical analysis to the secular variation and annual variance of groundwater buried depth of canal and each sub-region,we can know canal groundwater buried depth presented the increasing trend year by year and there are periodicity and seasonal variation in a year.Through the analysis of the character oftrend,periodic,respectively to canal groundwater buried depth,we further know that there is a trend of increase of canal groundwater buried depth.And we know the quasi period of canal 38 years’ groundwater buried depth is about 3 years,and there is no mutations.Through the phase space reconstruction to groundwater buried depth time series of canal and each sub-region by using the autocorrelation function method and the G-P algorithm,we can know the required the phase space reconstruction parameter of delay time and embedding dimension.On this basis,based on chaos theory,we can calculate the maximum Lyapunov exponent of canal and each sub-region ground water buried depth times series by using small data quantity method.All the maximum Lyapunovs are greater than zero,which indicate that canal groundwater level time series has obvious Chaos characteristics.Then we predict canal groundwater buried depth in2013 by using the nonlinear multiscale model and compared the result with the observed value.The prediction relative error are almost within 15%,and the prediction accuracy is higher.Based on chaos phase space reconstruction,the BP network model is established,and we predict canal groundwater buried depth in 2013 with this model and compared the result with the observed value.The prediction relative error are almost within 10%,and the prediction accuracy is higher.