| Based on the the data of precipitation and temperature form China grid data which level is 0.5°×0.5°.Using the climate tendency rate, linear trend and five years moving average to analysis the inter-annual variation characteristics of average temperature and precipitation in the Northeast nearly 53 a next year. Characterization of mutations by Mann-Kendall mutation test to Northeast China for nearly 53 a of the annual temperature and precipitation.On this basis, using the Thornthwaite Memorial model estimate the value of the climate productivity of three provinces in Northeast China and the spatial and temporal changes of Analysis. Then, study the correlation between average annual temperature, precipitation and climate productivity in the three provinces of Northeast China.And study the sensitivity of the climate productivity affected by the change,if temperature and precipitation changes.Finally,using the SPSS software, according to the annual average temperature, annual precipitation values and climate productivity value, a mathematical statistical model is established. Using the obtained binary linear equation to predict the future productivity of the three provinces in Northeast China. The main research results:(1) 1961-2013 in three provinces in the northeast of China in different times of the year, the four seasons and growing season the average temperature is not the same,but in the whole time series are over time showed trend of rising temperatures,especially in the 1990 s after the warming trend phenomenon is more significant.Nearly 53 a in northeast three provinces in four seasons and growing season of the temperature change rate are greater than zero, on behalf of the temperature change showed a rising trend, and there are many temperature fluctuation phenomenon. At the 0.05 significant level detection, in three provinces of Northeast China, summer,winter and the growing season average temperature showed an increasing trend and there are point mutations, according to the UF curve. Temperatures rise significantly after the 1990 s, especially since the 21 st century, temperature rise more significantly,entered the temperature state of a warmer climate. From spatial distribution results show that, due to the main effect of latitude, the average annual temperature in general from the north to the South gradually increased; affected by the position difference between sea and land, from northeast to southwest, temperature isgradually increased, but the magnitude of the temperature less than and the amplitude of the temperature between the north and the south.(2) 1961-2013 in three provinces in Northeast China precipitation decadal change: in summer and growing season the change trend of precipitation is consistency, showed a downward trend, and the change trend of precipitation in spring and autumn was increased. The three northeastern provinces near 53 a next year precipitation tendency rate is-0.10mm/10 a, having a rise and a decline in volatility phenomenon, and the change trend of precipitation in the four seasons are not the same, so changes in precipitation has obvious seasonal. the growing season precipitation tendency rate is-0.52mm/10 a, in 1998-2002 precipitation greatly under Drop. Overall, three provinces in Northeast China precipitation has obvious stages.According to the mutation results showed that nearly 53 years in three provinces of Northeast China, summer, winter and growing season precipitation changes more volatility, UF and UB intersection points between UF and UB are more. This leads to the conclusion that precipitation change is more obvious. From the spatial variation analysis, precipitation on the whole from south to north gradually reduce that latitudinal position of precipitation changes also play a decisive role, at the same time by the difference between land and sea affect precipitation from east to west also gradually reduced, but the magnitude is not North and South greatly reduced.(3) Climate productivity of three provinces in Northeast China in the analysis of the two models. The results showed that in Maimi model, climate productivity in fall and productivity generally greater than Thornthwaite model of climatic productivity,and in the summer and during the growing season, Miami model of climatic productivity of numerical generally smaller. But in both models, nearly 53 a to shows a rising trend in the climate productivity of three provinces in the northeast of China as a whole, reached the maximum value in the 1990 s. In the 21 st century after a certain extent reduced model of Miami climate productivity years average value for7654.92kg/(hm~2·a), Thornthwaite model of climate productivity in average value for6919kg/(hm~2·a). In the climate productivity in, the two models are in 1998 occurred maximum. During the growing season climate productivity, the two models are in 2013 occurrence maximum. Trend change results from the point of view, thetwo models under the climate productivity in showed a rising trend, trend rate respectively 14.89kg/(hm~2·a)(Miami model) and 9.94kg/(hm~2·a)(Thornthwaite model). And in the growing season when the climate productivity of two models were In the analysis of spatial variation, the two models showed that the climatic productivity of the three northeastern provinces decreased gradually from the south to the north, and decreased gradually from east to west, but the range was small.(4) According to the two kinds of numerical model and the three provinces in Northeast China’s actual production results, show that under 1989-2012 between two models of numerical to than to actual production, but on the whole with the passage of time, the difference between the two have gradually reduce. The Thornthwaite model values than the Miami model values close to the actual production, and combined with SPSS correlation analysis, found that the Thornthwaite model is more accurate.So we choose Thornthwaite model to further study.(5) Based on the Thornthwaite model,the correlation and sensitivity analysis between the temperature,precipitation and climatic productivity show that temperature and climatic potential productivity of the correlation coefficient was0.71,and the correlation coefficient of precipitation and climatic productivity was 0.59.Therefore, in the northeast three provinces, the influence of temperature on climate productivity is the dominant direction. When the climate is "warm and wet type",that rising temperatures 1°, precipitation increased by 10%, the climate productivity than the original climate productivity values increased 7.56%; when the climate is "warm and dry", the temperature rise 1°, precipitation reduced by 10%, the change of climate productivity than primitive climatic productivity increased 0.79%; When climate is "dry"(lower temperature 1°, precipitation reduced by 10%), new climate productivity than the original climate productivity reduces the 7.65%; when climate as "wet"(lower temperature 1°, precipitation increased by 10%), new climate productivity reduced 2.49%.(6) Based on the Thornthwaite model,according to the three provinces in the northeast of China independent variable with an average annual temperature, annual precipitation data and dependent variable climate productivity values of the establishment of a binary a regression equation can predict that, when the averageannual temperature of the three northeastern provinces every increase(decrease) 1°,three provinces in the northeast of China which corresponds to the climate productivity will increase(decrease) 310.234kg/(hm~2·a); when the annual rainfall in the three provinces in Northeast China each rise(fall) 1mm, the three provinces in the northeast of China which corresponds to the climate productivity, will increase(decrease) 4.048kg/(hm~2 ·a). Combined with the earlier research results, the annual average temperature per decade warming 0.032°, the annual precipitation reduction of0.1mm per 10 a, which can be calculated to predict that the northeast three provinces climate productivity in the future every 10 a may increase 4193.234kg/(hm~2·a). |
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