| According to the White Paper of Prevention on Ship Ports Against Air Pollution,a large and medium container ship with fuel containing 3.5% sulfurs will discharge PM2.5 of the amount equivalent to that emit by 500,000 wagons per day based on the maximum driving power of 70%.Those which berth close to coastlines and at ports and wharfs will generate a large number of such chemical substances as nitric oxides,oxides,sulfur oxides,hydrocarbons and carbon monoxides and suspended particles during the berthing,which will worsen air pollution of the ports and the surrounding areas,damage the greenhouse effect,mixed acid rain and atmospheric ozonosphere and directly endanger human health.Liquefied natural gas(LNG)is a kind of high-quality and high-efficient clean energy.This is not only a progress in developing green transport and constructing ecological civilization,but also an effective measure to conserve energy and reduce emission,achieve transformation and upgrade and optimize energy structure in the industry of water transport.Starting with the application background and significance of LNG,the paper describes the planned location and evaluation of domestic and overseas LNG-powered ship filling stations at the coastal ports and the existing problems and proposes the contents to be studied and the technical route.First,build a GM(1,1)forecast and inspection model for the cargo handling capacity of a port based on the grey system theory in case the historical reference information and volume statistics of a LNG-powered ship at the costal port are not available;determine the linear correlation coefficient between the fuel consumption of a port ship and the cargo handling capacity is about 0.00195;read the policy guidance to analyze the rate of substitution that is 10% by LNG for ships in the future(2020)and thus figure out the forma for forecasting the demand of a LNG-powered ship for gas.Second,plan the location of a LNG-powered ship filling station through three steps including filling method selection,scale design,quantity combination and location determination.Select a filling method suitable for the LNG-powered ships at costal ports through contrastive analyses of the characteristics of each maritime LNG filling type;build an interval restriction formula using the theory of balance between supply and demand to determine the design scale and quantity combination plan;plan the location of shore-based LNG filling stations according to the port layout and the standard and specification of building maritime LNG filling stations;construct an objective function based on the center-of-gravity method in a manner that minimizes the economic cost to qualitatively calculate the position of maritime LNG filling anchors and visually display them in the support of Google Earth and coordinate conversion software;those not considered in relation to the model are supplemented and optimized with the expert consultation method.Third,discuss the principles and main influence factors of planning the location of a LNG-powered ship filling station in terms of economy,investment,safety and otherness;design a location evaluation indicator based on the analytic hierarchy process;determine the relevant weight coefficients through expert evaluation;build a model of evaluating the location of a shore-based filling station and maritime filling anchor with the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.Finally,analyze the planning and development of the Port of Dalian and the consumption of energy for water transport to forecast the demand of a LNG-powered ship for gas in 2020 at the Port of Dalian,plan the location of filling stations and make an evaluation.Moreover,explore the future theory and technical development of the study.The paper provides not only practical guidance to a certain extent but also beneficial reference for related departments. |
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