Mountainous Area Highway Transport Of Dangerous Goods Accident Prediction And Risk Assessment Research

With the rapid growth of national economy, highway construction is constantly increasing mileage, too. Relative difficult construction, high investment cost than usual mountain road also has a larger development, mountain road mileage has markedly improved and road network density,road transport of dangerous goods is also growing rapidly. According to historical data, our country nearly half of the dangerous goods transportation accident happened in mountain road. Due to the special location of the accident point, difficult to rescue, combined with the particular hazards of dangerous goods,so once accident, tend to have huge consequences.Therefore, based on the mountainous area highway transport of dangerous goods as the breakthrough point for research.First of all, by comparing the mountainous area highway and investigation on influencing factors of different highway accident, road factors resulted in the mountainous highway traffic accident of the main factors. On this basis, this paper analyzed the characteristics of mountainous expressway, this paper expounds the Bridges, tunnels, bend, slope impact on traffic safety.Then, this paper expounds the mountainous area highway transport of dangerous goods status quo and characteristics of risk prediction, and introduces the commonly used prediction model and its advantages and disadvantages respectively.Factors affecting mountain area highway is much and uncertain characteristics, with higher prediction accuracy of grey GM (1, 1) combined with BP neural network algorithm to jiqing expressway and south east (G22) highway interpretation of the source for the amount of dangerous goods transportation accident forecast, make full use of the grey forecasting demand less sample data, a neural network nonlinear fitting ability strong advantage. Predicted value obtained by judge the risk of road transport of dangerous goods, at the same time in planning and management of the traffic management department to provide data support.Finally, study the simulation software , through the optimization, screening, the factors which influence jiqing highway by using software for selecting the downtown(east G22) Qingdao direction K219.073 pile number (22'118°E,36°06'N) for dangerous goods transportation accident hazard rating and dangerous range simulation. Provide theory support for the transport of dangerous goods accident rescue for the mountainous area highway transport of dangerous goods accident emergency response to offer help.