Research On Water Conservancy Construction Period Forecast And Control

Water conservancy project constructions are an important part of the basic construction,and are also the basic industry of the national economy.The management of water conservancy project constructions is difficult and is an arduous task.Schedule control,cost control,quality control are three important content and objectives of water conservancy projects construction management and control,they run through the whole process of engineering project constructions.There is a relationship of unity of opposite.With the progress of the society,the environment of water conservancy project constructions are becoming more and more complex,the management requirements need continuous improvement,in guarantee construction quality,and construction costs as low as possible under the premise to achieve shorter construction period and on time completion rate higher.This undoubtedly proposed greater challenge to the project management.In the prediction of project duration.This paper analyzed the drawbacks of traditional earned value method in predicting the duration of the project,proposed the earned schedule based on critical chain to predict the duration of the project.Earned value analysis for the critical chain and non-critical chain in critical chain network diagram,we can predict the project duration according to the progress of the chain and the overall impact to the project,and the result is more reliable;I have improved earned value cost composition in earned value analysis,proposed earned schedule based on uniform variable cost to predict project duration,improve the prediction accuracy of the project duration.In terms of schedule control,this paper introduces earned value analysis in critical chain network,due to the randomness of monitory point,the earned value analysis at monitory point in the critical chain,can quantitatively calculate the corresponding buffer consumption;Analyzed the disadvantages of the traditional three color management,proposed buffer management based on project completion,realize the dynamic control of the buffer;Analyzed the setting mechanism of non-critical chain feeding buffer in critical chain network diagram.Assuming that the work of the critical chain network diagram can be driven by the resources,when needed,we can allocate resources between the chain,in order to optimize the project duration.Finally,based on the above theory and research results,to a large-scale water conservancy project in the inverted siphon project as an example,discusses the measures to control this time prediction model and schedule,the were examples,confirmed the practicability and effectiveness.