Study Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Wanzhou District

The study of water resources carrying capacity is the premise and foundation of determining the regional social economic development,and it is the need to measure the sustainable utilization of water resources.In recent years,the rapid development of social economy in Wanzhou area makes the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources become more and more prominent,and the development and utilization of water resources have been put forward higher requirements.Therefore,the study of water resources carrying capacity of Wanzhou district has an important practical significance for the sustainable development of social economy in Wanzhou district.On the basis of summarizing the research results,this thesis uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,multi-objective analysis and system dynamics method to study water resources carrying capacity of Wanzhou district.Through the realization of the qualitative and quantitative research methods,the combination of static and dynamic combination from multiple angles to study the water resources carrying capacity,So as to put forward better policy and recommendations to improve water resources carrying capacity,promote the sustainable development of society and economy.The main content is:1)By analyzing the factors of Wanzhou Water Resources present utilization and water resources Carrying Capacity,select indexs from four aspects of water resources system,social system,economic system and ecological environment system.To establish water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system with multi hierarchical structure.Based on the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of AHP and Entropy,the water resources carrying capacity of Wanzhou District in 2014 was evaluated qualitatively,and the change of water resources carrying capacity in Wanzhou area in 2005-2014 was analyzed.2)According to the multi-objective analysis method established Wanzhou District water resources carrying capacity analysis model.The GDP and population can be carried as a measure,using MATLAB software to calculate the Wanzhou District 2020 water resources carrying capacity and compared with the relevant planning goals.3)By using the system dynamics method and analyzing the cause and effect relationship of the system structure,using Vensim software to establish a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Wanzhou area.As the planning year of model,from 2015 to 2015.Firstly simulate Trend and Patterns,then the five kinds of development scheme is designed,and by using the AHP and the vector norm method realize the quantification of scheme selection.Through simulate the dynamic change of water resources carrying capacity under five schemes,the optimal solution is selected.