Study On Evaluation And Early Warningn Of Ecological Carrying Capacity Of Jilin Province Under New Normal Conditions

China's new road to industrialization has achieved remarkable achievements,and its comprehensive national strength has significantly improved.China plays an important role on the world stage.There are also some problems such as tight resource constraints,severe environmental pollution,and degradation of the ecosystem while industrialization has developed in depth.In order to take the road of sustainable development,change the mode of development,and improve the conditions of resources and the environment,the Party Central Committee and the State Council have proposed two important deployments.First,entering the “new normal”for economic development.Second,increasing the development and protection of resources and environment,promoting the construction of ecological civilization.As one of the northeast old industrial bases in Jilin Province,under the background of China's macroeconomic reforms,issues appeared in economy,society,resources,and environment.The performance of the economic growth slowdown under the new normal is incompatible with the industrial structure,and the industrial structure is incompatible with the resource environment.In order to clarify the relationship among various subsystems of economy,society,resources,and environment,and objectively evaluate the conditions for the development and utilization of natural resources,we will use appropriate comprehensive evaluation methods to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity and scientifically evaluate the development of the country's space.The suitability and restrictions are very necessary.This paper mainly use the theory of ecological carrying capacity and set pair analysis model to evaluate and analyze the ecological carrying capacity of Jilin Province in 2007-2016,so as to find out the restrictive factors affecting the carrying status of Jilin Province,and at the same time,carrying out early warning analysis of Jilin Province's ecological carrying capacity.The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Jilin Province in 2010-2012 and 2013-2016 have a declining trend in different degrees respectively.The main reason is that under the background of the new normal economy,the GDP growth rate in Jilin Province slows down,and the industrial structure is the main problem.Combining with the secondary economy as the pillar of the national economy rely heavily on the supply of energy resources,resulting in depletion of resources,at the same time,difficulty in pollution control,corporate innovation and low efficiency are also factors that affect the ecological carrying capacity of Jilin Province.Monitoring and early warning of the ecological carrying capacity of Jilin Province,integrating the single-monitoring and comprehensive warning results as the final warning results of theecological carrying capacity of Jilin Province.The research results show that the overall carrying situation in Jilin Province is unsafe and relatively insecure and needs to be given a severe warning and a middle warning.And proposing five suggestions on how to improve Jilin Province's ecological carrying capacity.Finally,under the strong support of the comprehensive revitalization policy and the “One Belt and One Road” strategy of the old industrial base in northeast China,Jilin Province can adjust its industrial structure,upgrade its industrial structure,develop emerging advantageous industries,and enhance its ability to innovate in enterprises by seeking new economic growth points.The development of the new normal economy will achieve remarkable results in the 13 th Five-Year Plan.