The Climate Change And The Response To The Activity Of Sunspots In The Dry-hot Valleys (DHV) Area

Based on the daily ground data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine time of observation data,and the date of sunspots number during 1952~2014,studing the interannual climate change,the seasonal climate change,the sunspots change and the climate change on the response of the sunspots number by morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test,correlation analysis.Some conclusions were drawn as follows:(1)Analysis of characteristics of the average temperature change.The interannual average temperature and the four seasons average temperature have obvious rising trend in the study region.There are 3a,8a and 26 a periods in the interannual average temperature series.There are 3a,8a and 28 a periods in the average temperature series in spring.There are 2a,6a,8a and 25 a periods in the average temperature series in summer.There are 3a,7a,11 a,16a,23 a and 39 a periods in the average temperature series in autumn.There are 3a,7a,16 a,25a and 57 a periods in the average temperature series in winter.The interannual average temperature have four point mutations,respectively in2002,2004,2007 and 2008.Spring,summer and autumn average temperatures are only a point mutation,the corresponding time is respectively 2013,2010 and 2003.Winter average temperature has two point mutations,mutation point of the time for the 1989 and 1992.The annual average temperature and average temperature of the four seasons change all through the test of a confidence interval.(2)Analysis of characteristics of precipitation change.In the study area,winter rainfall presents a significant decline,other all have no obvious change.The annual rainfall time series have 15 a,2a,7a,23 a and 40 a oscillation main cycle.There are2 a,7a,15 a,23a and 40 a periods in the interannual rainfall series.There are 4a,12 a and 29 a periods in the rainfall series in spring.There are 2a,7a,14 a,21a and 46 a periods in therainfall series in summer.There are 2a,6a,7a,12 a,16a and 37 a periods in the rainfall series in autumn.There are 3a,5a,9a,10 a and 20 a periods in the rainfall series in winter.The interannual rainfall have nine points,respectively,in1954,1990,1991,1993,1995,2002,2011,2012 and 2014.Spring precipitation has multiple mutations points,generally can be divided into four periods,respectively is1952-1965,1970-1988,2010 and 2011.Its mutation point most between the1970-1988,explain the spring precipitation period is extremely unstable.Summer precipitation has multiple mutations points,generally can be divided into four periods,were 1953,1958,1990-1993,2005-2013,the abrupt change point of the2005-2013 years at most,this period of summer precipitation is very unstable.Autumn rainfall has four point mutation,the four mutation point of the time were 1953,1954,1998,2000.Winter precipitation has three point mutations,respectively is 2008,2009,20010.Annual precipitation and precipitation of the four seasons change all through the test of a confidence interval.(3)Analysis of characteristics of sunshine time change.In the study area,the annual sunshine time and sunshine time of the four seasons are showing obvious downward trend.The annual sunshine hours of time series have 4a,19 a and 29 a periodic oscillation signal.There are 3a,7a,8a,12 a,18a,27 a,56a periods in the sunshine time series in spring.There are 6a,12 a and 53 a periods in the sunshine time series in summer.There are3 a,7a,14 a,18a and 56 a periods in the sunshine time series in autumn.There are 4a,6a,14 a and 30 a periods in the sunshine time series in winter.The sunshine time have a mutation point,in 1989;Spring sunshine time has two points,respectively in 1992 and 1994.Both summer and autumn sunshine time has only a point mutation,in 1995 and 1996.There are eight mutation points,winter sunshine time in general can be divided into four periods,respectively is 1972-1980,1982,1984,1987.Change of sunshine time of annual sunshine hours and the four seasons all through the test of a confidence interval.(4)Analysis of characteristics of the sunspot number change.The number of interannual sunspots of wavelet is larger,more sunspots period and the number of sunspots alternating periods of less frequent.In the number of sunspots time series have the oscillation of a main cycle in 11 a,20a and 33 a.The interannual sunspot number have two point mutations,respectively in 1996 and 2002,and through the test of a confidence interval.(5)The response of climatic factors to sunspot number.In 4a,8a,16 a,32a,63 a time scale,the annual average temperature and the sunspot number exists negative lowcorrelation in Xichang,but there is no lag.In 4a,16 a,63a time scale,there was a positive correlation between the annual precipitation and the sunspot number in Xichang,under the time scale of 8a,both showed a negative correlation,and there are 3a,4a lag.In 8a time scale,the sunshine time was positively significantly correlated with number of sunspots in Xichang,in 2a,4a,16 a,32a,64 a time scales,both show a low correlation,and sunshine time and year sunspot number 1 a lag.