Based On The Srm Model In The Headwaters Region Of Urumqi River Of Ice And Snow Runoff Simulation

Under the background of global warming, study the effects of climate change on the snow, and runoff in arid areas is crucial. As global warming intensifies, how the mountainous runoff in Xinjiang area will be change, whether as the change of snowmelt runoff and larger changes, is the first question in Xinjiang region need to answer. Urumqi is a new silk road economic belt is an important city, the city of agricultural irrigation and water mainly comes from the Urumqi River of life. The research to the headwaters region of Urumqi River of ice and snow melt water runoff in the basin is closely related to the urban development and human survival.This paper for the first time to apply satellite remote sensing technology in Urumqi, the snowmelt runoff in the study of river source area, and combining the three ground stations meteorological hydrological data, 2001-2010 in the studied area snowmelt runoff is simulated research, and analyzed the mechanism of snowmelt runoff response to climate change. Get the following results:(1)Through to the headwaters region of Urumqi River of snowmelt runoff simulation for 10 years in a row, found that each year the simulated results and the measured curve, the model can well simulate the Urumqi River head of snowmelt runoff process.(2)The snowmelt period than any other year in 2005-2007 has obvious situation ahead of time, through the analysis of the study area in 2001-2010 months average temperature and average precipitation, found that the main reason is the early snowmelt period(May) in 2005-2007 in the average temperature and average precipitation were higher than in other years.(3)The Snowmelt Runoff model could accurately simulate the headwaters region of Urumqi River runoff peak, but in view of the daily runoff simulation results is not very accurate. The main factors for these are the following: 1) The models involved in the operation process of variables is too little, can't fully detailed analyses of current situation of high mountain hydrologic cycle.2) The elevation in the study area with only a meteorological hydrological sites, the measured data is less, can't accurately reflect the whole study area meteorological hydrological changes.3) Due to the use of the measured data rate constant parameters have great difficulty and not reality, so in the choice of process parameters, some parameters directly using the experience value.(4)Application of dimensionless goodness-of-fit determine coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient R2 and covariance Dv is evaluated with the result of simulation, the simulation results of the R2 more than 0.71 year, Dv are below 10%, suggesting that SRM snowmelt model in the headwaters region of Urumqi River of snowmelt runoff simulation accuracy is better, SRM model has good applicability in the study area.(5)Analysis of the degree of the study area runoff response to climate change, found that the change of the temperature and precipitation and runoff changes were positively correlated, further analysis found that the sensitivity of precipitation area runoff is greater than its sensitivity to temperature. So precipitation is the leading factor in the study area runoff increase, but because of the study area is located in the alpine region, solid-state precipitation not allow to ignore, combined with the research development in the area with article 7 of the modern glaciers, rising temperatures will lead to the increase of ice and snow melt water, thus affect the study area runoff, so the temperature is important factors that result in the change of runoff.(6)Through the simulation of extreme weather situation(T+2??P+20%), found that within the next 30 years, if the study area climate continues to "warm"(temperatures and precipitation increase), the addition of the runoff in the study area very great degree will not exceed 30% of the current years average runoff.