Prediction Of Oil Price In Cambodia

Oil is not one of the homogenous commodities. Oil production can constitute to build every level of production and consumption in such key sectors of economic life such as petrochemicals, chemicals, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and service industries and so on. So that oil prices play an important role in affecting economic change. Future oil price prediction is very important topic for every countries in the world including consumption countries. The determinants of past, current, and future levels of the oil price and its fluctuations have been the subject of analysis by academics and economic energy experts, which are given the relevance of crude oil in the worldwide economy.This paper, I also examines the factors responsible for changing in oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices which are related to the predictions of theory, by using Time Series Model (AR Model) structure to predict the future oil price in Cambodia for the next decade. As we have known that Cambodia has no experience in oil industry and we do not have any document which are related Cambodia prediction oil price. So in Chapter 2 of this paper, I rest many of literatures review and some theories which are affected to future of commodities price. That is a clue to evaluate some factors that affect to oil prices in general. All the data of this research paper was collected from Ministry of Commerce from the year of 2005 to 2013 as a sample of research in order to predict more 5 year after. Through application of econometrics tool (model), I will examine on behavior of crude oil prices; on the other hand, the fundamental factors contributing to their variation. These results should be useful for members of oil industries, government decision-maker, and for all Cambodian citizen in order to forecast price and in investigating the impacts on forecasting prices of changing market fundamentals, such as petroleum inventories, production imports, demand and supply, and agents of financial markets who need to be able to understand and forecast oil price movements in the near future.Last not least, my result could be a major correlation between past, present and future oil prices and oil prices are inefficient to a large extent. Also I found out that there is a major predictive power and it could be used to predict oil prices with great result.