Research Of Assessment And Forecast On Provincial Integrated Economic Strength

Integrated economic strength is an item used in economics to describe the comprehensive degree of possession of substance in a country or a specific region. Provincial integrated economic strength is an integrated level of factors, which could reflect the development of economy in a geographical region of a province. Studying provincial integrated economic strength, and making assessment of provinces based on it, have important significance for the development of national economic policy. Thus in this paper, based on basic statistical theory, multi-index integrated assessment method and time series forecast method are studied; thereby an assessment-forecast-assessment methodology, which can be applied to obtaining provincial integrated economic strength, is established. The main research contents and results are as follows:(1) Provincial integrated economic strength. With the introduction of economic strength, the meaning of integrated economic strength is discussed. Then the expanded definition of provincial integrated economic strength is presented, and the assessment index system, which can numerically represent it, i.e. it can be extracted from the assessment index system in a form of "quantitative value", is established.(2) Factor analysis assessment method. A few common factors are extracted from the origin assessment index system, and each of them is explained with specific economic representations. Based on the functional relationship between common factors and variables, each factor score of a certain sample is obtained. Integrating these factor scores into an "integrated score", and it is the indicator that represents the provincial integrated economic strength and can be quantified.(3) Time series forecasting method. First, the traditional time series modeling method is presented; and a new "portfolio additive model" method, which is used for short-term annual time series data modeling, is proposed. Then certain models and their forecasting results are derived using the above two kinds of method. Finally, based on the forecasting results and error analysis, the optimal forecasting model is screened out. The optimal model’s forecasting results will be used for further study.(4) Numerical calculation and analysis of its results. According to the assessment index system, assessment method and forecasting method, the 31 provinces of mainland China are studied as samples, with each’s latest 12 years’data being calculated. To illustrate the assessment of provincial integrated economic strength, process of the calculation of 2012 year data is described in detail. Results of the "integrated score" of each sample from 2001 to 2010 are used for time series modeling and forecasting, while the results of 2011 and 2012 are used to test accuracy of the forecasting. At last, the future 3 years’ "integrated score" are forecasted; and based on these forecasting results, integrated assessment of samples is presented.