Research On Optimal Allocation Of Railway High Speed Express

With the electronic commerce development of our country and the optimization about the express industry environment, the transportation demand for products with the characteristic of muli-item,small quantities, multi-batch, high value-added is increasing. At the same time, people put forward higher requirements about the demand for timeliness, safety, convenience, reliability and other aspects. Since the reform about Rail freight organization in our country, China railway corporation continuously has expanded the market of high value-added goods, and develop the freight transport product. China railway corporation has developed railway high speed express, to satisfy the demand of the market. However, the railway high speed express cannot adapt to the freight demand,and the market attractive of this business is not very well. The main reason is that the product system of railway high speed express is not complete, and the lack of definition, reasonable division of the railway high speed express product, overall research and the top-level design for the allocation plan. Therefore, in order to promote high-speed rail express business of our country deeply, it is necessary to study the method system and model in the light of characteristic, demand and supply of the high-speed rail express business in our country.This paper, on the basis of related scientific research of China General Railway Company, combining on-site survey and theoretical study, has researched the on the optimal allocation of railway high speed express systematically. The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)This paper has defined the concept of railway high speed express products, and summarized advanced experience of the main countries abroad about railway high speed express products, refined the status of development and main problems about railway high speed express products of our country,including reference and enlightenment.(2) Through combinatorial forecasting model about the time series forecasting and gray dynamic model, and high-speed market share rate model, this paper has forecasted the quantity demand of railway high-speed express in2020. By calculating the carrying capacity of the motor train unit for confirming,motor train unit with passengers and goods,this two existing railway high-speed express product, come to the conclusion that, these carrying capacity cannot meet the demand of the future market. In addition, this paper has built the railway high speed express product system in our country, including the motor train unit for confirming,motor train unit with passengers and goods, the special train for railway high speed express, motor train unit only for goods.(3)This paper has proposed method system, basic principles and main steps for optimal allocation of high speed railway express. The railway high-speed express business OD prediction model has been built, mainly including express business comprehensive strength evaluation of city, express business contact strength calculation between cities, and the urban express business attract strength calculation between cities. The railway high-speed express business optimal allocation model has also been established, mainly including volume distribution, product allocation two stages.The first stage set economic benefit customer demand as the goal, the second stage with the goal of maximizing the train volume effective capacity utilization.(4)Taking railway high-speed express business between Beijing and Shanghai as the example on the basis of the related data, to predicte the OD quantity demand,and design the optimal allocation of high speed railway express including the motor train unit for confirming,motor train unit with passengers and goods, the special train for railway high speed express, motor train unit only for goods.In addition, this paper has proved the rationality of the scheme, through capacity utilization point of view, the authors made an evaluation of the scheme.