Research And Implement The System Based On Grey Theory For Forecasting And Analyzing Farm Household Income In Inner Mongolia

Farmers’ issues is the main problems of "three rural", and it is key to increase farmers’ income, therefore, increasing farmers’ income is the fundamental starting point and the end result for development of agriculture and rural. With development of Chinese economy,economy of Inner Mongolia has been developing well, and the growth rate of the economy often ranked first in provinces and cities. However, there is a certain distance between the income growth rate of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia and income growth rate of farmers in the country, and growth rate of farmers’ income in Inner Mongolia is far lower than the number of provinces’,So it is very imminent to study and analyze the factors affecting the growth of farmers’ income in Inner Mongolia and make a lot of policies about promoting farmers’ income.The study is based on a research project of the Inner Mongolia Party Committee Agriculture Office, in accordance with the grasping historical reference value information about household income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia, researching and analyzing common algorithms about prediction, selected a algorithm matching the characteristics of historical data in the system. Finally using gray forecasting GM (1,1) model predicted the next two years the income of farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia, and using gray correlation analysis method analyzed farmers’ income constitution in Inner Mongolia. By testing the results, to analyze the main factors affecting the income of farmers in Inner Mongolia, to made useful suggestions to promote farmers’ income in Inner Mongolia.Eventually, implemented a subsystem for forecasting and analysis about observation points of rural and pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia, the system used the architecture of the B/S’s, MVC development model, Servlet technology, JSP technology, JDBC database access technology, JFreeChart diagramming library, with histogram displayed actual data visually clear, with a line graph that predicted and actual values were compared. Its main features include:counted on average household income of herdsmen and farmers in Inner Mongolia and effectively predicted future revenues year after year, at the same time,counted on the farmers 12 Union City’s per capital income, and forecasting future income year after year; counted on herdsmen in Inner farmer income structure and calculated its gray correlation analysis.